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Home › Spain › La Liga › Atletico Madrid — Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Home · last 5 L W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 14:15
2:1
Full-time
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
L W W L W Away · last 5
Riyadh Air Metropolitano · Madrid Referee Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 59% · book 1.86 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 49% · book 2.39 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.63 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
61% – 39%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.57 — +9.3% better than the market.

La Liga Clash: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Real Madrid enters this fixture with a clear quality edge and recent strong form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Atletico’s home momentum and compact defensive setup could challenge Madrid’s potent attack, but the visitors’ pressing edge and superior offensive numbers hint at control. Expect a tactical battle with a moderate pace, leaning towards a tight scoreline given both sides’ solid defensive traits.

  • Real’s offensive strength vs Atletico’s disciplined defense
  • Home side’s recent resilience and set-piece threat
  • Moderate tempo likely, favoring tactical caution

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.57 ✓ Cashed
AI 70% Implied 64% +0.57u
+57%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATM 4-4-2 · REA 4-2-3-1
ATM · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · REA 13 Oblak 14 Llorente 18 Pubill 21 Romero 17 Hancko 20 Simeone 10 Baena 5 Cardoso 22 Grimaldo ⚽ 7 Kang-In 15 David ⚽ 1 Courtois 24 Dumfries 16 Konaté 4 Huijsen 17 Cucurella 8 Valverde 14 Tchouaméni 15 Güler 5 Bellingham 7 Júnior 10 Mbappé
Subs used · ATM
45' Koke ↑ · Pubill ↓
62' Álvarez ↑ · David ↓
67' Lookman ↑ · Rodríguez ↓
89' Normand ↑ · Romero ↓
89' Hjulmand ↑ · Kang-In ↓
Subs used · REA
54' Rüdiger ↑ · Güler ↓
54' Diomande ↑ · Vinícius ↓
71' Camavinga ↑ · Tchouameni ↓
82' Silva ↑ · Bellingham ↓

Statistics

ATM 2 – 1 REA
61%
Possession (%)
39%
18
Total Shots
8
9
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
4
13
Shots Inside Box
3
3
Corner Kicks
1
2
Offsides
2
19
Fouls
6
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

18 · 2 – 1
Diego Pablo Simeone
Yellow Card
▮
6'
Marc Pubill
Yellow Card
▮
35'
Cristian Romero
Yellow Card
▮
38'
Koke ↓ · Marc Pubill ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
45'
Half-time · 0 – 0
49'
▮
Denzel Dumfries
Yellow Card
52'
▮
Dean Huijsen
Red Card
Alejandro Grimaldo (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
53'
54'
⇄
Antonio Rüdiger ↓ · Arda Güler ↑
Substitution 1
54'
⇄
Yan Diomande ↓ · Vinícius ↑
Substitution 2
Jonathan David
Assist · Giuliano Simeone Baldini · 2–0
⚽
59'
Julián Álvarez ↓ · Jonathan David ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
Ademola Lookman ↓ · Alejandro Baena Rodríguez ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
67'
71'
⇄
Eduardo Camavinga ↓ · Aurelien Tchouameni ↑
Substitution 3
78'
▮
Jude Bellingham
Yellow Card
82'
⇄
Bernardo Silva ↓ · Jude Bellingham ↑
Substitution 4
Robin Le Normand ↓ · Cristian Romero ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
89'
Morten Hjulmand ↓ · Lee Kang-In ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
89'
89'
⚽
Antonio Rüdiger
Assist · Bernardo Silva · 2–1
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 8, 9 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Alejandro Grimaldo (53'), Jonathan David (59'), Antonio Rüdiger (89'). Dean Huijsen was sent off in the 52' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.95 units (Brier 0.249).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.86 2.02 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.39 2.39 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.63 2.53 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.57 1.57 70% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.74 1.74 45% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.15 2.37 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 19.00 16.95 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.33 5.00 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.43 1.53 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.27 1.30 81% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.43 1.50 56% Cashed +0.43 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.44 1.48 55% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 1.03 92% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.97 3.70 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.95 2.60 19% Cashed +1.95 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.12 1.12 74% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Home Win 3.78 3.45 19% Cashed +2.78 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.95u −11% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
ATM – REA @ 1.57
+9.3%
Edge
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