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Home › Spain › La Liga › Alaves — Valencia

Predictions by Market: Alaves vs Valencia

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 W L L D L
Kick-off
Tue 15 Sep · 18:00
0:1
Full-time
Valencia
Valencia
L L L W L Away · last 5

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ALA
55%
Best 1.76
Draw
28%
Best 3.70
Away Win · VAL
23%
Best 5.75
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.54
Fair odds
4.43
book 4.54 · +2.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 23% · EV +2.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (55%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 22.6%
Odds 4.54
Show model details
Implied probability 22%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 59.3%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 40.7%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 33.4%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 66.6%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.8%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.2%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 20.5%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 56%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 44%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 20.5%
Odds 3.70
Show model details
Implied probability 27.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 52.1%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 45.3%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 77.4%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
ALA – VAL @ 4.54
+2.5%
Edge
Forecast →