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Home › Spain › La Liga › Alaves — Valencia

Alaves vs Valencia 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 W L L D L
Kick-off
Tue 15 Sep · 18:00
0:1
Full-time
Valencia
Valencia
L L L W L Away · last 5
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.67 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.76 ✓
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 55% · book 1.73 ✗
Total goals
1
0 · 1
Possession
43% – 57%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.54 — +2.5% better than the market.

Alaves enter this La Liga clash with clear home momentum, having secured solid recent results compared to Valencia's struggles. Their higher scoring potential and better form suggest they can control the game tempo and press effectively. Valencia's defensive vulnerabilities may be exploited by Alaves' sharper attack, while the visitors' lack of confidence could limit their offensive threat.

  • Alaves' recent form shows resilience and goal threat
  • Valencia's defensive lapses create openings
  • Moderate pace expected with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 4.54 ✓ Cashed
AI 23% Implied 22% +3.54u
+354%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALA 3-5-2 · VAL 4-4-2
ALA · 3-5-2 4-4-2 · VAL 1 Sivera 14 Tenaglia 16 Koski 2 Valentini 7 Pérez 19 Ibáñez 8 Blanco 4 Suárez 21 Rebbach 15 Boyé 11 Martínez 1 Dimitrievski 24 Maffeo 18 Pepelu 12 de Haas 14 Gayà 23 Ugrinic 33 Mayol 2 Rodríguez 7 Danjuma 8 Guerra 9 Duro
Subs used · ALA
67' Díaz ↑ · Martínez ↓
67' Enriquez ↑ · Suárez ↓
85' Aleñá ↑ · Hidalgo ↓
85' Guevara ↑ · Blanco ↓
85' Rodríguez ↑ · Rebbach ↓
Subs used · VAL
63' Rioja ↑ · Duro ↓
70' Ejededawe ↑ · Rodríguez ↓
82' Vázquez ↑ · Rioja ↓
82' Córdoba ↑ · Haas ↓
82' López ↑ · Maffeo ↓

Statistics

ALA 0 – 1 VAL
43%
Possession (%)
57%
15
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Target
3
8
Shots off Target
2
11
Shots Inside Box
5
2
Corner Kicks
5
3
Offsides
4
7
Fouls
14
1
Yellow Cards
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 0 – 1
21'
▮
Javi Guerra
Yellow Card
Antonio Blanco
Yellow Card
▮
21'
45+2'
▮
José Luis García Vayá
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
52'
▮
Aaron Mayol
Yellow Card
61'
▮
Guido Rodríguez
Yellow Card
63'
⇄
Luis Rioja ↓ · Hugo Duro ↑
Substitution 1
Mariano Díaz ↓ · Toni Martínez ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
67'
Youssef Enriquez ↓ · Denis Suárez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
70'
⇄
David Otorbi Ejededawe ↓ · Guido Rodríguez ↑
Substitution 2
78'
⚽
Luis Rioja
Assist · Javi Guerra · 0–1
82'
⇄
Jesús Vázquez ↓ · Luis Rioja ↑
Substitution 3
82'
⇄
Iker Córdoba ↓ · Justin De Haas ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⇄
Arnau Martínez López ↓ · Pablo Maffeo ↑
Substitution 5
Carles Aleñá ↓ · Angel Pérez Hidalgo ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
85'
Ander Guevara ↓ · Antonio Blanco ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
85'
Miguel Rodríguez ↓ · Abderrahmane Rebbach ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Valencia won 1–0 away at Alaves. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Luis Rioja (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.97 units (Brier 0.265).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.67 1.75 59% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
BTTS No 1.76 1.80 56% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Home Win 1.73 1.70 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.30 2.10 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.08 2.10 45% Cashed +1.08 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.98 1.95 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.88 3.25 33% Cashed +1.88 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.20 1.15 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.40 1.33 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.20 3.55 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.70 3.82 20% Cashed +2.70 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.31 1.23 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.54 5.59 23% Cashed +3.54 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.28 1.28 78% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 1.05 89% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 9.01 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.33 3.56 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.97u +12% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
ALA – VAL @ 4.54
+2.5%
Edge
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