Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.98 — +14.8% better than the market.

Real Madrid enters this La Liga clash with clear home momentum, boasting a strong recent run and a superior points-per-game edge. Their attacking prowess is likely to test Rayo Vallecano's defense, which has shown some resilience but struggles against high-quality offenses. The match hints at a lively tempo, with over 2.5 goals probable given both teams' tendencies and historical goal-rich encounters.

Home side's attacking edge against away defense
Recent form favors Real Madrid's confidence
Potential for open play and goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.98 ✓ Cashed

AI 58% Implied 51% +0.98u

+98%

ROI on stake

Lineups

REA 4-2-3-1 · RAY 4-2-3-1

REA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · RAY

10 Mbappé ⚽

Subs used · REA

45'

Camavinga ↑ ·

Valverde ↓

69'

Tchouameni ↑ ·

Silva ↓

72'

Güler ↑ ·

Diomande ↓

89'

Cucurella ↑ ·

Vinícius ↓

Subs used · RAY

67'

Belaid ↑ ·

Díaz ↓

67'

Valentín ↑ ·

Bouare ↓

75'

Zurawski ↑ ·

Camello ↓

75'

Sadick ↑ ·

López ↓

86'

Balliu ↑ ·

Pedrosa ↓

Statistics

REA 4 – 1 RAY

56%

Possession (%)

44%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 4 – 1

Kylian Mbappé (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

14'

Álvaro Fernández Carreras

Assist · Kylian Mbappé · 2–0

⚽

17'

Jude Bellingham

Assist · Vinícius · 3–0

⚽

35'

Eduardo Camavinga ↓ · Federico Valverde ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Half-time · 3 – 0

51'

⚽

Sergio Camello

3–1

67'

⇄

Rayane Belaid ↓ · Pedro Díaz ↑

Substitution 1

67'

⇄

Óscar Valentín ↓ · Gnangoro Bouare ↑

Substitution 2

Aurelien Tchouameni ↓ · Bernardo Silva ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

Arda Güler ↓ · Yan Diomande ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

75'

⇄

Alexandre Zurawski ↓ · Sergio Camello ↑

Substitution 3

75'

⇄

Mujaid Sadick ↓ · Unai López ↑

Substitution 4

76'

▮

Pathé Ciss

Yellow Card

86'

⇄

Ivan Balliu ↓ · Adrià Pedrosa ↑

Substitution 5

Marc Cucurella ↓ · Vinícius ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

89'

Kylian Mbappé

Assist · Arda Güler · 4–1

⚽

90+1'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 18, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 5.

On the scoresheet: Kylian Mbappé (14'), Álvaro Fernández Carreras (17'), Jude Bellingham (35'), Sergio Camello (51'), Kylian Mbappé (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.70 units (Brier 0.075).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.98	1.84	58%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.80	1.73	56%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Under 3.5	2.00	2.20	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.75	1.89	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	18.00	17.54	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	6.00	5.99	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	14.00	14.08	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	8.75	9.01	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.02	1.02	89%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Home Win	1.13	1.14	75%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.03	1.03	75%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.28	1.25	75%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.06	1.06	90%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.50	3.75	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	7.60	8.20	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.70u	−38% ROI

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled