Elche vs Real Sociedad 2:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.55 — +13.6% better than the market.

Elche and Real Sociedad face off with both sides struggling for form recently, but Sociedad holds a slight edge in recent points per game and expected goals. The home side’s lack of offensive firepower contrasts with Sociedad’s more balanced attack and defense, suggesting a tight contest. The odds and recent head-to-heads hint at a cautious, low-scoring game with under 2.5 goals likely.

Sociedad’s better recent form offers a subtle momentum advantage
Elche’s defensive resilience may keep the score low
Balanced pace expected, favoring a compact tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.55 ✗ Lost

AI 32% Implied 28% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ELC 3-5-2 · RSO 4-4-2

ELC · 3-5-2 4-4-2 · RSO

9 Ponce

Subs used · ELC

55'

Osorio ↑ ·

Ponce ↓

55'

Lemar ↑ ·

Buonanotte ↓

70'

Cepeda ↑ ·

Villar ↓

81'

Pomares ↑ ·

Valera ↓

81'

Revivo ↑ ·

Sangaré ↓

Subs used · RSO

58'

García ↑ ·

Guedes ↓

58'

Martin ↑ ·

Sarr ↓

70'

Pacheco ↑ ·

Herrera ↓

70'

Gorrotxategi ↑ ·

Oyarzabal ↓

81'

Fort ↑ ·

García ↓

Statistics

ELC 2 – 3 RSO

58%

Possession (%)

42%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 2 – 3

▮

Jon Aramburu

Yellow Card

11'

⚽

Job Ochieng

Assist · Carlos Soler · 0–1

31'

⚽

Yangel Herrera

Assist · Job Ochieng · 0–2

Tete Morente

Yellow Card

▮

43'

Half-time · 0 – 2

Abiel Alessio Osorio ↓ · Ezequiel Ponce ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

Thomas Lemar ↓ · Facundo Buonanotte ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

55'

Abiel Alessio Osorio

Yellow Card

▮

57'

58'

⇄

Alex Marchal García ↓ · Gonçalo Guedes ↑

Substitution 1

58'

⇄

Jon Martin ↓ · Mamadou Sarr ↑

Substitution 2

64'

▮

Jon Martin

Red Card

Thomas Lemar

Assist · Víctor Chust · 1–2

⚽

67'

Germán Valera

Yellow Card

▮

68'

70'

⇄

Jon Pacheco ↓ · Yangel Herrera ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

Jon Gorrotxategi ↓ · Mikel Oyarzabal ↑

Substitution 4

Lucas Cepeda ↓ · Gonzalo Villar ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

Fernando Niño Rodríguez

Assist · Tete Morente · 2–2

⚽

74'

81'

⇄

Hector Fort ↓ · Alex Marchal García ↑

Substitution 5

José Antonio Ferrández Pomares ↓ · Germán Valera ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

Roy Revivo ↓ · Buba Sangaré ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

90'

⚽

Luka Sučić

Assist · Job Ochieng · 2–3

Thomas Lemar

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Real Sociedad won 3–2 away at Elche. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 13, 10 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Job Ochieng (11'), Yangel Herrera (31'), Thomas Lemar (67'), Fernando Niño Rodríguez (74'), Luka Sučić (90'). Jon Martin was sent off in the 64' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.42 units (Brier 0.257).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.91	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.06	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.13	—	44%	Cashed	+1.13	Cashed
Home Win	3.40	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	49%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.73	—	45%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.33	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.65	—	42%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.69	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.31	—	70%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.55	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.35	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	68%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.78	—	24%	Cashed	+1.78	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−2.42u	−16% ROI