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Home › Spain › La Liga › Rayo Vallecano — Racing Santander

Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Home · last 5 L W L W D
Kick-off
Sat 05 Sep · 16:30
3:2
Full-time
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
W L W L L Away · last 5
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.91 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 2.08 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 58% · book 1.69 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.55 — +6.9% better than the market.

Rayo Vallecano faces Racing Santander in a La Liga clash where both sides show similar recent form, with Racing holding a slight edge in momentum. The match hints at a cautious tempo, supported by balanced odds on goals. Rayo’s home resilience could be tested by Racing’s sharper attacking threat, suggesting a tight contest with limited scoring chances.

  • Racing’s recent form and higher expected goals suggest offensive initiative.
  • Rayo’s home setup may focus on compact defense.
  • Odds imply a moderate pace and a likely low-scoring game.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.55 ✗ Lost
AI 30% Implied 28% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RAY 4-3-3 · SAN 4-2-3-1
Subs used · RAY
57' Zurawski ↑ · Camello ↓
57' Bouare ↑ · Valentín ↓
65' Martínez ↑ · Frutos ↓
74' Tsitaishvili ↑ · García ↓
75' Balliu ↑ · Pedrosa ↓
Subs used · SAN
55' Parra ↑ · Hernando ↓
55' Almeida ↑ · Prati ↓
55' Belocian ↑ · González ↓
90' Arana ↑ · García ↓
90' Caricol ↑ · Mantilla ↓

Statistics

RAY 3 – 2 SAN
49%
Possession (%)
51%
16
Total Shots
10
10
Shots on Target
5
3
Shots off Target
3
9
Shots Inside Box
5
9
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
2
15
Fouls
12
3
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

22 · 3 – 2
Óscar Valentín
Yellow Card
▮
2'
4'
⚽
Sergio Canales
0–1
Andrei Rațiu
Assist · Sergio Camello · 1–1
⚽
17'
25'
▮
Yassir Zabiri
Yellow Card
28'
⚽
Pablo García
1–2
35'
▮
Iñigo Vicente
Yellow Card
Sergio Camello
Yellow Card
▮
39'
Sergio Camello
Assist · Unai López · 2–2
⚽
43'
Half-time · 2 – 2
Sergio Camello
Assist · Unai López · 3–2
⚽
47'
55'
⇄
Pablo Ramon Parra ↓ · Manu Hernando ↑
Substitution 1
55'
⇄
André Almeida ↓ · Matteo Prati ↑
Substitution 2
55'
⇄
Jeanuël Belocian ↓ · Facundo González ↑
Substitution 3
Alexandre Zurawski ↓ · Sergio Camello ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
57'
Gnangoro Bouare ↓ · Óscar Valentín ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
57'
Francisco Pérez Martínez ↓ · Jorge De Frutos ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
65'
Florian Lejeune
Yellow Card
▮
66'
Georgiy Tsitaishvili ↓ · Álvaro García ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
Ivan Balliu ↓ · Adrià Pedrosa ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
75'
Francisco Pérez Martínez
Red Card
▮
85'
Jorge De Frutos
Red Card
▮
89'
90'
⇄
Juan Carlos Arana ↓ · Pablo García ↑
Substitution 4
90'
⇄
Aarón Martin Caricol ↓ · Alvaro Mantilla ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano beat Racing Santander 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–2.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 6. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Sergio Canales (4'), Andrei Rațiu (17'), Pablo García (28'), Sergio Camello (43'), Sergio Camello (47'). Francisco Pérez Martínez was sent off in the 85' minute. Jorge De Frutos was sent off in the 89' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.32 units (Brier 0.246).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.91 2.10 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.08 2.24 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.69 1.78 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.20 2.04 42% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.91 1.79 45% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.70 1.60 50% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.74 2.73 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.49 1.49 45% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.55 4.10 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.20 3.70 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.35 1.30 68% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.42 1.42 73% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.35 3.55 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.28 1.22 70% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.75 2.75 27% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −2.32u −15% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
RAY – SAN @ 3.55
+6.9%
Edge
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