Real Madrid vs Malaga 4:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 7.50 — +13.1% better than the market.

Real Madrid enters this La Liga clash with clear home momentum, having won their last match while Malaga struggles with a recent draw and loss. The home side's attacking potential combined with Malaga's defensive vulnerabilities suggests Real Madrid can control the game tempo and limit away chances. Expect a compact defensive block from Malaga, but Real's pressing edge and home comfort likely tilt the balance.

Home momentum and form advantage
Malaga's defensive frailties against Real's attack
Likely controlled pace favoring Real Madrid

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 7.50 ✗ Lost

AI 15% Implied 13% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

REA 4-2-3-1 · MAL 4-4-2

REA · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · MAL

10 Mbappé ⚽

Subs used · REA

65'

Diomande ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

77'

Silva ↑ ·

Valverde ↓

87'

Guler ↑ ·

Bellingham ↓

Subs used · MAL

46'

Martinez ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

61'

Cruz ↑ ·

Munoz ↓

61'

Salinas ↑ ·

Puga ↓

74'

Abaida ↑ ·

Galilea ↓

87'

Enriquez ↑ ·

Merino ↓

Statistics

REA 4 – 0 MAL

57%

Possession (%)

43%

2.34

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.72

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

92%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

14 · 4 – 0

J. Bellingham

1–0

⚽

19'

A. Herrero

Own goal · 2–0

⚽

26'

K. Mbappe

Assist · T. Alexander-Arnold · 3–0

⚽

30'

Half-time · 3 – 0

46'

⇄

P. Martinez ↓ · R. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

J. Cruz ↓ · J. Munoz ↑

Substitution 2

61'

⇄

J. Salinas ↓ · C. Puga ↑

Substitution 3

Y. Diomande ↓ · B. Diaz ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

66'

▮

Chupe

Yellow Card

74'

⇄

H. Abaida ↓ · E. Galilea ↑

Substitution 4

B. Silva ↓ · F. Valverde ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

77'

A. Guler ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

⇄

R. Enriquez ↓ · I. Merino ↑

Substitution 5

A. Guler

Assist · Vinicius Junior · 4–0

⚽

90+1'

90+3'

▮

R. Enriquez

Yellow Card

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Malaga 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.34 to 0.72. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 14, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 6. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.34 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: J. Bellingham (19'), A. Herrero (26'), K. Mbappe (30'), A. Guler (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -6.04 units (Brier 0.078).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.78	1.64	62%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
Under 3.5	2.10	2.30	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	1.80	1.61	50%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.97	2.17	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	16.75	24.39	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	4.05	4.05	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	9.00	9.01	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	6.90	8.62	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	21.00	20.83	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	7.50	12.05	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.03	1.01	87%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.08	1.08	80%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.03	1.01	72%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.03	1.03	89%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.21	1.21	73%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−6.04u	−40% ROI

Real Madrid vs Malaga 4:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled