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Home › Spain › La Liga › Real Madrid — Malaga

Predictions by Market: Real Madrid vs Malaga

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 L W W L W
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 15:00
4:0
Full-time
Malaga
Malaga
D D L L D Away · last 5
Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia · Murcia Referee J. Martinez

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · REA
80%
Best 1.10
Draw
15%
Best 13.90
Away Win · MAL
13%
Best 30.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.50
Fair odds
6.63
book 7.50 · +13.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 15% · EV +13.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (80%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win
Probability 13.3%
Odds 16.75
Show model details
Implied probability 6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 15.1%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 79.7%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 93%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 6 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 48.7%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 50.2%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 26.8%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 11.4%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 88.6%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 73.2%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 62.4%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.3%
Bet quality High
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 37.6%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 8.5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 22%
Odds 6.90
Show model details
Implied probability 14.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 86.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – MAL @ 7.50
+13.1%
Edge
Forecast →