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Home › England › Premier League › Newcastle — Tottenham

Newcastle vs Tottenham 2:2: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Tue 02 Dec · 20:15
2:2
Full-time
Tottenham
Tottenham
W W D L W Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle Referee Thomas Bramall, England
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 52% · book 2.17 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.30 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 47% · book 2.15 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.96 – 0.79
Δ +1.17
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.17 — +13.1% better than the market.

Newcastle shows strong home momentum with a solid recent run contrasting Tottenham's patchy form. Despite Tottenham's overall quality edge, Newcastle's defensive resilience at St. James' Park and their sharper recent points per game suggest a compact, disciplined approach. Expect a tactical battle where Newcastle's pressing and home comfort could limit Tottenham's attacking threat.

  • Newcastle's home defensive solidity vs Tottenham's moderate offensive edge
  • Recent form favors Newcastle's confidence and consistency
  • Moderate pace expected, leaning towards a controlled, strategic game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.17 ✓ Cashed
AI 52% Implied 46% +1.17u
+117%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · TOT 4-2-3-1
NEW · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · TOT 32 Ramsdale 21 Livramento 12 Thiaw 33 Burn 3 Hall 67 Miley 8 Tonali 7 Joelinton 23 Murphy 27 Woltemade 11 Barnes 1 Vicario 23 Porro 17 Romero ⚽ 4 Danso 13 Udogie 30 Bentancur 29 Sarr 20 Kudus 15 Bergvall 22 Johnson 39 Muani
Subs used · NEW
46' Guimaraes ↑ · Tonali ↓
66' Gordon ↑ · Barnes ↓
66' Elanga ↑ · Murphy ↓
90+3' Schar ↑ · Miley ↓
Subs used · TOT
77' Simons ↑ · Bergvall ↓
77' Richarlison ↑ · Kolo Muani ↓
77' Tel ↑ · Johnson ↓
87' Gray ↑ · M. Sarr ↓
87' Odobert ↑ · Kudus ↓

Statistics

NEW 2 – 2 TOT
53%
Possession (%)
47%
1.96
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.79
19
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Target
2
5
Shots off Target
1
13
Shots Inside Box
7
11
Corner Kicks
8
3
Offsides
1
5
Fouls
12
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

16 · 2 – 2
23'
▮
Cristian Romero
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Bruno Guimaraes ↓ · S. Tonali ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
56'
▮
Rodrigo Bentancur
Yellow Card
A. Gordon ↓ · H. Barnes ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
A. Elanga ↓ · J. Murphy ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
Bruno Guimaraes
Assist · N. Woltemade · 1–0
⚽
71'
77'
⇄
X. Simons ↓ · L. Bergvall ↑
Substitution 1
77'
⇄
Richarlison ↓ · R. Kolo Muani ↑
Substitution 2
77'
⇄
M. Tel ↓ · B. Johnson ↑
Substitution 3
78'
⚽
C. Romero
Assist · M. Kudus · 1–1
86'
▮
Richarlison
Yellow Card
A. Gordon (P)
Penalty · 2–1
⚽
86'
87'
⇄
A. Gray ↓ · P. M. Sarr ↑
Substitution 4
87'
⇄
W. Odobert ↓ · M. Kudus ↑
Substitution 5
90'
⚽
C. Romero
2–2
F. Schar ↓ · L. Miley ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+3'
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Newcastle and Tottenham drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.96 to 0.79. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 8. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Bruno Guimaraes (71'), C. Romero (78'), A. Gordon (86'), C. Romero (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.79 units (Brier 0.209).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.17 — 52% Cashed +1.17 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.30 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.15 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.76 — 53% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.78 — 52% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Home Win 1.78 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.50 — 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.76 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.50 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.23 — 71% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.87 — 30% Cashed +1.87 Cashed
Under 0.5 14.80 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.50 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 — 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 4.10 — 23% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.25 — 76% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.38 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.79u −5% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
NEW – TOT @ 2.17
+13.1%
Edge
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