Match Chelsea vs Arsenal November 30, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.99 — +13.7% better than the market.

Premier League Clash at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea hosts Arsenal in a high-stakes encounter where quality leans towards the visitors. Arsenal's defensive solidity contrasts with Chelsea's decent home momentum, setting a tactical battle between a compact block and dynamic offense. Recent form favors Chelsea slightly, but Arsenal's pressing edge and higher overall strength suggest a tight, potentially high-scoring game. Expect a lively pace with both sides probing for set-piece opportunities and quick transitions.

Chelsea's home form brings confidence and attacking initiative.
Arsenal's defensive resilience challenges Chelsea's offense.
Match tempo likely brisk, favoring quick counters and pressing.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.99 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CHE 4-2-3-1 · ARS 4-3-3

CHE · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · ARS

20 Pedro

Subs used · CHE

46'

Garnacho ↑ ·

Estêvão ↓

55'

Delap ↑ ·

Pedro ↓

Subs used · ARS

46'

Lewis-Skelly ↑ ·

Calafiori ↓

57'

Odegaard ↑ ·

Zubimendi ↓

57'

Madueke ↑ ·

Martinelli ↓

72'

Gyökeres ↑ ·

Eze ↓

📊 Statistics

CHE 1 – 1 ARS

38%

Possession (%)

62%

0.79

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.26

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 1

▮

Martín Zubimendi

Yellow Card

Marc Cucurella

Yellow Card

▮

11'

13'

▮

Cristhian Mosquera

Yellow Card

27'

▮

Riccardo Calafiori

Yellow Card

Moisés Caicedo

Red Card

▮

38'

41'

▮

Piero Hincapié

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

A. Garnacho ↓ · Estêvão ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

M. Lewis-Skelly ↓ · R. Calafiori ↑

Substitution 1

T. Chalobah

Assist · R. James · 1–0

⚽

48'

54'

▮

Myles Lewis-Skelly

Yellow Card

L. Delap ↓ · Joao Pedro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

55'

57'

⇄

M. Odegaard ↓ · M. Zubimendi ↑

Substitution 2

57'

⇄

N. Madueke ↓ · G. Martinelli ↑

Substitution 3

59'

⚽

M. Merino

Assist · B. Saka · 1–1

72'

⇄

V. Gyökeres ↓ · E. Eze ↑

Substitution 4

88'

▮

Viktor Gyökeres

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Chelsea and Arsenal drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: T. Chalobah (48'), M. Merino (59'). Moisés Caicedo was sent off in the 38' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.99 units (Brier 0.166).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.99	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.28	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.74	—	59%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
BTTS No	2.16	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.96	—	43%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.60	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.71	—	48%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.48	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.36	—	79%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.45	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.31	—	79%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	94%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.50	—	26%	Cashed	+2.50	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.36	—	65%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.47	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.99u	−18% ROI