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Home › England › Premier League › Chelsea — Bournemouth

Chelsea vs Bournemouth 5:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 W L D L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 14:00
5:1
Full-time
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D D D L L Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Samuel Barrott
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 64% · book 1.62 ✗
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.78 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 42% · book 2.68 ✗
Total goals
6
5 · 1
xG (open play)
1.16 – 1.52
Δ −0.36
Possession
40% – 60%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 6.00 — +13.2% better than the market.

Chelsea hold a clear quality edge over Bournemouth, boosted by a solid home momentum and a pressing edge in attack versus Bournemouth's defense. Chelsea's recent form shows signs of revival, while Bournemouth struggles for consistency. Expect a controlled tempo at Stamford Bridge, with Chelsea's compact block likely to limit Bournemouth's chances.

  • Home advantage with tactical solidity
  • Stronger offensive pressure against a vulnerable defense
  • Recent form favors Chelsea's confidence

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 6.00 ✗ Lost
AI 19% Implied 17% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CHE 3-4-3 · BOU 4-2-3-1
CHE · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · BOU 1 Martínez 34 Acheampong 5 Lacroix 6 Colwill 7 Neto 14 Henderson ⚽ 25 Caicedo 29 Chavarría 10 Palmer 9 Pedro ⚽ 17 Rogers ⚽ 1 Petrović 15 Smith 5 Hill 14 Silva 3 Truffert 12 Adams 10 Christie 37 Rayan 16 Tavernier 7 Brooks 9 Evanilson ⚽
Subs used · CHE
72' Lavia ↑ · Caicedo ↓
72' Palestra ↑ · Pedro ↓
83' Welbeck ↑ · Neto ↓
84' Gonçalves ↑ · Rogers ↓
88' Gusto ↑ · Palmer ↓
Subs used · BOU
45' Gannon-Doak ↑ · Brooks ↓
72' Sánchez ↑ · Smith ↓
72' Rodríguez ↑ · Tavernier ↓
73' Cook ↑ · Christie ↓
84' Soler ↑ · Truffert ↓

Statistics

CHE 5 – 1 BOU
40%
Possession (%)
60%
1.16
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.52
10
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
4
2
Shots off Target
3
7
Shots Inside Box
6
1
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
0
7
Fouls
15
0
Yellow Cards
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

20 · 5 – 1
Jordan Henderson
Assist · Cole Palmer · 1–0
⚽
2'
Morgan Rogers
Assist · Jordan Henderson · 2–0
⚽
3'
10'
▮
Marcus Tavernier
Yellow Card
42'
▮
Adrien Truffert
Yellow Card
45'
⇄
Ben Gannon-Doak ↓ · David Brooks ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 2 – 0
João Pedro
Assist · Pedro Neto · 3–0
⚽
46'
51'
⚽
Francisco Evanilson
3–1
62'
▮
Tyler Adams
Yellow Card
João Pedro
Assist · Pep Chavarria · 4–1
⚽
67'
69'
▮
Ryan Christie
Yellow Card
Jordan Henderson
5–1
⚽
70'
Romeo Lavia ↓ · Moises Caicedo ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
72'
Marco Palestra ↓ · João Pedro ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
72'
72'
⇄
Juanlu Sánchez ↓ · Adam Smith ↑
Substitution 2
72'
⇄
Álvaro Rodríguez ↓ · Marcus Tavernier ↑
Substitution 3
73'
⇄
Lewis Cook ↓ · Ryan Christie ↑
Substitution 4
Danny Welbeck ↓ · Pedro Neto ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
83'
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves ↓ · Morgan Rogers ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
84'
⇄
Julio Soler ↓ · Adrien Truffert ↑
Substitution 5
Malo Gusto ↓ · Cole Palmer ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
Full-time · 5 – 1

Match recap

Chelsea beat Bournemouth 5–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 1. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 1.16 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Jordan Henderson (2'), Morgan Rogers (3'), João Pedro (46'), Francisco Evanilson (51'), João Pedro (67'), Jordan Henderson (70').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.26 units (Brier 0.131).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.62 1.57 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.78 1.80 60% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
BTTS No 2.68 2.42 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.38 2.38 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.14 2.38 38% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.01 1.98 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.00 5.00 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.24 1.22 83% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.57 1.57 56% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.37 1.38 60% Cashed +0.37 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.53 1.53 56% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Under 0.5 20.00 16.95 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 95% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 4.08 3.91 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.09 1.14 81% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.95 3.22 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.01 4.15 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.26u −31% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
CHE – BOU @ 6.00
+13.2%
Edge
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