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Home › England › Premier League › Chelsea — Bournemouth

Predictions by Market: Chelsea vs Bournemouth

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 W L D L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 14:00
5:1
Full-time
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D D D L L Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Samuel Barrott

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · CHE
60%
Best 1.86
Draw
22%
Best 4.01
Away Win · BOU
18%
Best 4.36
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 6.00
Fair odds
5.30
book 6.00 · +13.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 19% · EV +13.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (81%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.3%
Bet quality High
✓ Draw
Probability 22.2%
Odds 4.08
Show model details
Implied probability 24.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 17.5%
Odds 4.01
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 64.3%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 38.4%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 18.9%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5.3%
Odds 20.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 81.1%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 41.8%
Odds 2.68
Show model details
Implied probability 37.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 55.9%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 17.5%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 34%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 39.7%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 81%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
CHE – BOU @ 6.00
+13.2%
Edge
Forecast →