P
Prognosist
P
Home › England › Premier League › Newcastle — Bournemouth

Newcastle vs Bournemouth 2:2: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 D W D L W
Kick-off
Sat 05 Sep · 11:30
2:2
Full-time
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D D D L L Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle Referee R. Jones
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 43% · book 2.50 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.30 ✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 57% · book 1.65 ✓
Total goals
4
2 · 2
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.83 — +9.9% better than the market.

Newcastle hosts Bournemouth at St. James' Park with a slight edge in recent form and home momentum. Newcastle's better recent results and higher expected goals suggest they can control the game, especially given Bournemouth's struggles on the road. The match may feature a moderate pace, leaning towards a compact battle with limited clear-cut chances.

  • Newcastle's home form and attacking threat
  • Bournemouth's defensive vulnerabilities away
  • Likely tactical caution limiting goal flow

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.83 ✗ Lost
AI 23% Implied 21% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NEW 4-2-3-1 · BOU 4-2-3-1
Subs used · NEW
63' Fernandez-Pardo ↑ · Willock ↓
63' Ramsey ↑ · Miley ↓
77' Steur ↑ · González ↓
78' Murphy ↑ · Elanga ↓
90' Livramento ↑ · Hall ↓
Subs used · BOU
76' Cook ↑ · Adams ↓
76' Brooks ↑ · Kluivert ↓
89' Jebbison ↑ · Tavernier ↓
89' Gannon-Doak ↑ · Rocha ↓
90+6' Christie ↑ · Scott ↓

Statistics

NEW 2 – 2 BOU
57%
Possession (%)
43%
8
Total Shots
17
2
Shots on Target
5
4
Shots off Target
5
5
Shots Inside Box
9
4
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
1
19
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

20 · 2 – 2
9'
⚽
Marcus Tavernier
0–1
Anthony Elanga
Yellow Card
▮
28'
35'
⚽
Malick Thiaw
Own goal · 0–2
Harvey Barnes
Assist · Lewis Hall · 1–2
⚽
37'
Half-time · 1 – 2
Yoane Wissa
Yellow Card
▮
57'
Matias Fernandez-Pardo ↓ · Joe Willock ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
63'
Jacob Ramsey ↓ · Lewis Miley ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
66'
▮
Justin Kluivert
Yellow Card
Matthias·Jaissle
Yellow Card
▮
71'
76'
⇄
Lewis Cook ↓ · Tyler Adams ↑
Substitution 1
76'
⇄
David Brooks ↓ · Justin Kluivert ↑
Substitution 2
Sean Steur ↓ · Nico González ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
Jacob Murphy ↓ · Anthony Elanga ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
87'
▮
Adrien Truffert
Yellow Card
Jacob Ramsey
2–2
⚽
88'
89'
⇄
Daniel Jebbison ↓ · Marcus Tavernier ↑
Substitution 3
89'
⇄
Ben Gannon-Doak ↓ · Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha ↑
Substitution 4
Valentino Livramento ↓ · Lewis Hall ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
90+4'
▮
Adam Smith
Yellow Card
90+6'
⇄
Ryan Christie ↓ · Alex Scott ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Newcastle and Bournemouth drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 5 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Marcus Tavernier (9'), Malick Thiaw (35'), Harvey Barnes (37'), Jacob Ramsey (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.64 units (Brier 0.191).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.50 2.50 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.30 2.38 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.65 1.70 57% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Home Win 2.20 2.10 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.62 1.53 54% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.37 2.38 33% Cashed +1.37 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.27 2.49 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.68 1.56 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.83 5.00 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.54 1.57 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.95 3.34 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.36 1.33 68% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.50 1.50 57% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 14.93 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 93% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.68 3.60 25% Cashed +2.68 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.16 1.14 77% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.64u −16% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NEW – BOU @ 4.83
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →