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Home › England › Premier League › Newcastle — Bournemouth

Predictions by Market: Newcastle vs Bournemouth

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 D W D L W
Kick-off
Sat 05 Sep · 11:30
2:2
Full-time
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D D D L L Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle Referee R. Jones

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NEW
43%
Best 2.15
Draw
25%
Best 3.80
Away Win · BOU
32%
Best 3.48
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.83
Fair odds
4.39
book 4.83 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 23% · EV +9.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (77%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 42.8%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 32.4%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 24.9%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 33%
Odds 2.37
Show model details
Implied probability 42.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 22.8%
Odds 4.83
Show model details
Implied probability 20.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 67%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 6.8%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.2%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 43.1%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 32.4%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 42.8%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 57.3%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 67.6%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NEW – BOU @ 4.83
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →