Chelsea vs Brighton 4:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.67 — +14.8% better than the market.

Chelsea hosts Brighton at Stamford Bridge with both sides coming off wins, suggesting positive momentum. Chelsea’s home advantage and recent strong finishes hint at a pressing edge, while Brighton’s resilience on the road could test Chelsea’s defensive compactness. The odds favor a lively game with over 2.5 goals likely, reflecting an open pace and attacking intent from both teams.

Chelsea’s home form offers a tactical pressing advantage.
Brighton’s away resilience challenges Chelsea’s defense.
Market signals point to a game with multiple goals.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.67 ✓ Cashed

AI 69% Implied 60% +0.67u

+67%

ROI on stake

Lineups

CHE 3-4-2-1 · BRI 4-2-3-1

CHE · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · BRI

9 Pedro ⚽

Subs used · CHE

68'

James ↑ ·

Lavia ↓

68'

Acheampong ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

68'

Caicedo ↑ ·

Neto ↓

72'

Chavarria ↑ ·

Colwill ↓

82'

Barco ↑ ·

Caicedo ↓

Subs used · BRI

74'

Osman ↑ ·

Yalcouye ↓

81'

David ↑ ·

Kostoulas ↓

81'

Costinha ↑ ·

Wieffer ↓

Statistics

CHE 4 – 3 BRI

26%

Possession (%)

74%

2.97

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.56

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

67%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 4 – 3

R. Lavia

1–0

⚽

P. Neto

Assist · M. Rogers · 2–0

⚽

14'

Joao Pedro

Assist · J. Hato · 3–0

⚽

32'

35'

⚽

M. Yalcouye

3–1

Half-time · 3 – 1

W. Fofana

Yellow Card

▮

55'

63'

⚽

Joao Pedro

Own goal · 3–2

R. James ↓ · R. Lavia ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

J. Acheampong ↓ · W. Fofana ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

M. Caicedo ↓ · P. Neto ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

68'

70'

▮

L. Dunk

Yellow Card

P. Chavarria ↓ · L. Colwill ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

74'

⇄

I. Osman ↓ · M. Yalcouye ↑

Substitution 1

C. Palmer

Assist · Joao Pedro · 4–2

⚽

74'

81'

⇄

P. David ↓ · C. Kostoulas ↑

Substitution 2

81'

⇄

Costinha ↓ · M. Wieffer ↑

Substitution 3

V. Barco ↓ · M. Caicedo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

89'

▮

O. Boscagli

Yellow Card

90+1'

▮

Costinha

Yellow Card

90+6'

⚽

P. Gross

4–3

Full-time · 4 – 3

Match recap

Chelsea beat Brighton 4–3 at home. At half-time it was 3–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 74% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.97 to 1.56. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Lavia (4'), P. Neto (14'), Joao Pedro (32'), M. Yalcouye (35'), Joao Pedro (63'), C. Palmer (74'), P. Gross (90+6').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.16 units (Brier 0.126).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	2.68	2.50	48%	Cashed	+1.68	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.67	1.67	69%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.61	1.57	69%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.83	1.84	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.91	1.91	46%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.20	2.25	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.21	2.29	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.21	1.18	88%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Away Win	3.73	3.95	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	1.25	71%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.81	2.88	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.43	1.50	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.46	1.44	46%	Cashed	+0.46	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	1.01	96%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	3.73	3.77	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.19	4.50	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	12.99	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.16u	−24% ROI

Chelsea vs Brighton 4:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled