Match Newcastle vs Liverpool August 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 3.73 — +10.4% better than the market.

With limited recent form and performance data, this Premier League opener between Newcastle and Liverpool hints at an open contest. The odds suggest a lively pace with a good chance of goals, reflecting both sides' attacking potential. Liverpool may hold a slight edge given their historical strength, but Newcastle's home presence could balance the scales.

Potential for an attacking game with over 2.5 goals likely.
Home advantage might help Newcastle maintain pressure.
Liverpool's experience could shape key moments.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 3.73 ✗ Lost

AI 30% Implied 27% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NEW 4-2-3-1 · LIV 4-2-3-1

NEW · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · LIV

10 Osula

Subs used · NEW

56'

Ramsey ↑ ·

Steur ↓

56'

Willock ↑ ·

Osula ↓

76'

Murphy ↑ ·

Elanga ↓

76'

Bamba ↑ ·

Miley ↓

90+5'

Schar ↑ ·

Wissa ↓

Subs used · LIV

63'

Munoz ↑ ·

Ngumoha ↓

63'

Mac Allister ↑ ·

Wirtz ↓

70'

Araujo ↑ ·

Jacquet ↓

78'

Koumas ↑ ·

Gravenberch ↓

📊 Statistics

NEW 2 – 2 LIV

39%

Possession (%)

61%

1.42

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.23

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 2 – 2

A. Elanga

Assist · W. Osula · 1–0

⚽

Y. Wissa

Yellow Card

▮

25'

30'

▮

M. Kerkez

Yellow Card

30'

▮

J. Frimpong

Yellow Card

L. Miley

Yellow Card

▮

34'

Half-time · 1 – 0

55'

⚽

C. Gakpo

Assist · R. Gravenberch · 1–1

J. Ramsey ↓ · S. Steur ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

56'

J. Willock ↓ · W. Osula ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

56'

J. Willock

Assist · Y. Wissa · 2–1

⚽

57'

63'

⇄

V. Munoz ↓ · R. Ngumoha ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

A. Mac Allister ↓ · F. Wirtz ↑

Substitution 2

J. Ramsey

Yellow Card

▮

65'

70'

⇄

R. Araujo ↓ · J. Jacquet ↑

Substitution 3

J. Murphy ↓ · A. Elanga ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

A. Bamba ↓ · L. Miley ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

78'

⇄

L. Koumas ↓ · R. Gravenberch ↑

Substitution 4

J. Murphy

Yellow Card

▮

79'

90'

▮

V. van Dijk

Yellow Card

L. Hornicek

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

F. Schar ↓ · Y. Wissa ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+5'

90+9'

⚽

D. Szoboszlai (P)

Penalty · 2–2

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Newcastle and Liverpool drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.23 to 1.42. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 13, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Elanga (5'), C. Gakpo (55'), J. Willock (57'), D. Szoboszlai (90+9').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.79 units (Brier 0.177).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X	1.87	1.91	54%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.71	1.62	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.24	2.30	43%	Cashed	+1.24	Cashed
BTTS No	2.68	2.61	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.60	2.50	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.93	1.86	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.75	2.91	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.44	1.44	65%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.44	1.50	64%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Home Win	3.73	4.05	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.48	1.43	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.80	3.83	25%	Cashed	+2.80	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.12	1.15	83%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.43	5.05	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.30	1.25	70%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.79u	−12% ROI