Match Ecuador vs Germany June 25, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.80 — +14.6% better than the market.

Germany's strong winning streak and potent attack give them a clear edge in this World Cup clash. Their high scoring rate and solid defense contrast with Ecuador's more cautious, low-scoring qualification form. Expect Germany to press aggressively, while Ecuador may rely on a compact block and counterattacks.

Germany's attacking firepower likely to challenge Ecuador's disciplined defense
Ecuador's home momentum tempered by neutral venue and Germany's form
Moderate pace expected with chances for both sides to score

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.80

AI 64% Implied 56% Value

+14.6%

Expected value

⛀ Lineups

ECU 4-4-2 · GER 4-2-3-1

ECU · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · GER

13 Valencia

Subs used · ECU

64'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Valencia ↓

64'

Preciado ↑ ·

Franco ↓

71'

Estupinan ↑ ·

Hincapié ↓

85'

Torres ↑ ·

Yeboah ↓

85'

Caicedo ↑ ·

Angulo ↓

Subs used · GER

45'

Stiller ↑ ·

Pavlović ↓

60'

Undav ↑ ·

Havertz ↓

60'

Thiaw ↑ ·

Kimmich ↓

64'

Beier ↑ ·

Nmecha ↓

73'

Groß ↑ ·

Wirtz ↓

📊 Statistics

ECU 2 – 1 GER

39%

Possession (%)

61%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 2 – 1

⚽

Leroy Sané

Assist · Florian Wirtz · 0–1

Nilson Angulo

Assist · Pedro Vite · 1–1

⚽

Piero Hincapié

Yellow Card

▮

43'

44'

▮

Aleksandar Pavlović

Yellow Card

45'

⇄

Angelo Stiller ↓ · Aleksandar Pavlović ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 1 – 1

Alan Franco

Yellow Card

▮

50'

60'

⇄

Deniz Undav ↓ · Kai Havertz ↑

Substitution 2

60'

⇄

Malick Thiaw ↓ · Joshua Kimmich ↑

Substitution 3

Kevin Rodriguez ↓ · Enner Valencia ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

Angelo Preciado ↓ · Alan Franco ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

⇄

Maximilian Beier ↓ · Felix Nmecha ↑

Substitution 4

Pervis Estupinan ↓ · Piero Hincapié ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

73'

⇄

Pascal Groß ↓ · Florian Wirtz ↑

Substitution 5

Gonzalo Plata

Assist · Kevin Rodriguez · 2–1

⚽

77'

Felix Torres ↓ · John Yeboah ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

Jordy Caicedo ↓ · Nilson Angulo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

Gonzalo Plata

Yellow Card

▮

89'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Ecuador beat Germany 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 7, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Leroy Sané (2'), Nilson Angulo (9'), Gonzalo Plata (77').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +2.49 units (Brier 0.234).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.62	1.65	69%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.72	1.71	64%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.50	2.34	46%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.87	3.72	26%	Cashed	+2.87	Cashed
Away Win	1.52	1.57	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.06	2.10	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.25	2.30	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.50	2.51	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	5.13	5.00	26%	Cashed	+4.13	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.15	1.18	74%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.15	1.20	86%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.23	1.24	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.00	4.74	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.50	1.50	52%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	4.50	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+2.49u	+17% ROI