Match Netherlands vs Sweden June 20, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Netherlands enter this World Cup clash with strong home momentum, boasting a potent attack and solid defensive record in qualifiers. Their high goal output and disciplined backline contrast with Sweden's more inconsistent form and defensive vulnerabilities. The Dutch pressing edge and superior chance creation suggest they can control the tempo and exploit Sweden's leaky defense.

Netherlands' clinical finishing and defensive solidity
Sweden's recent defensive struggles and lower scoring rate
Potential for a high-tempo game favoring the home side's attacking prowess

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

NET 4-3-3 · SWE 3-1-4-2

NET · 4-3-3 3-1-4-2 · SWE

11 Gakpo ⚽

Subs used · NET

46'

Summerville ↑ ·

Malen ↓

59'

Koopmeiners ↑ ·

de Jong ↓

59'

Til ↑ ·

Reijnders ↓

72'

Depay ↑ ·

Brobbey ↓

90'

Lang ↑ ·

Gakpo ↓

Subs used · SWE

55'

Elanga ↑ ·

Bernhardsson ↓

56'

Zeneli ↑ ·

Karlstrom ↓

56'

Bergvall ↑ ·

Nygren ↓

79'

Ali ↑ ·

Ayari ↓

90+3'

Stroud ↑ ·

Gudmundsson ↓

📊 Statistics

NET 5 – 1 SWE

51%

Possession (%)

49%

2.47

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.98

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 5 – 1

B. Brobbey

Assist · C. Gakpo · 1–0

⚽

B. Brobbey

Assist · D. Dumfries · 2–0

⚽

17'

Half-time · 2 – 0

C. Summerville ↓ · D. Malen ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

C. Gakpo

Assist · D. Dumfries · 3–0

⚽

47'

53'

▮

G. Gudmundsson

Yellow Card

C. Gakpo

Assist · C. Summerville · 4–0

⚽

54'

55'

⇄

A. Elanga ↓ · A. Bernhardsson ↑

Substitution 1

56'

⇄

B. Zeneli ↓ · J. Karlstrom ↑

Substitution 2

56'

⇄

L. Bergvall ↓ · B. Nygren ↑

Substitution 3

59'

⚽

A. Elanga

Assist · A. Isak · 4–1

T. Koopmeiners ↓ · F. de Jong ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

G. Til ↓ · T. Reijnders ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

59'

M. Depay ↓ · B. Brobbey ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

75'

▮

Y. Ayari

Yellow Card

79'

⇄

T. Ali ↓ · Y. Ayari ↑

Substitution 4

80'

▮

L. Bergvall

Yellow Card

C. Summerville

Assist · M. Depay · 5–1

⚽

89'

N. Lang ↓ · C. Gakpo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

90+3'

⇄

E. Stroud ↓ · G. Gudmundsson ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 5 – 1

Match recap

Netherlands beat Sweden 5–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.47 to 0.98. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 2.47 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: B. Brobbey (5'), B. Brobbey (17'), C. Gakpo (47'), C. Gakpo (54'), A. Elanga (59'), C. Summerville (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.65 units (Brier 0.163).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.15	2.10	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.21	2.30	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.71	1.62	53%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
BTTS No	2.20	2.20	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.62	1.61	55%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Home Win	1.69	1.72	53%	Cashed	+0.69	Cashed
Away Win	5.00	4.63	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.63	2.60	32%	Cashed	+1.63	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.17	1.18	77%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.43	1.50	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	92%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	3.83	4.00	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	1.20	74%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.50	4.50	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	14.93	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.60	3.44	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.26	1.30	53%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.65u	−27% ROI