Match Leeds vs Aston Villa November 23, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.30 — +13.0% better than the market.

Aston Villa arrives at Elland Road with a clear quality edge and a stronger defensive record, suggesting they can stifle Leeds' attack. Despite Leeds' home advantage, their recent form shows struggles, while Villa's momentum and compact defensive block could limit goal opportunities. Expect a tactical battle with Villa likely to control the pace and frustrate the hosts.

Villa's defensive solidity vs Leeds' moderate offense
Leeds' home edge tempered by poor recent form
Lower goal expectation given Villa's disciplined setup

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.30 ✗ Lost

AI 34% Implied 30% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEE 4-3-3 · AST 4-4-2

LEE · 4-3-3 4-4-2 · AST

19 Okafor

Subs used · LEE

23'

Tanaka ↑ ·

Stach ↓

71'

James ↑ ·

Nmecha ↓

71'

Calvert-Lewin ↑

80'

Gnonto ↑ ·

Okafor ↓

80'

Piroe ↑ ·

Aaronson ↓

Subs used · AST

46'

Maatsen ↑ ·

Digne ↓

46'

Malen ↑ ·

Buendia ↓

68'

Barkley ↑ ·

McGinn ↓

68'

Sancho ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

84'

Bogarde ↑ ·

Tielemans ↓

📊 Statistics

LEE 1 – 2 AST

47%

Possession (%)

53%

1.55

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 1 – 2

L. Nmecha

1–0

⚽

A. Tanaka ↓ · A. Stach ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

23'

Jayden Bogle

Yellow Card

▮

41'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

I. Maatsen ↓ · L. Digne ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

D. Malen ↓ · E. Buendia ↑

Substitution 2

Ao Tanaka

Yellow Card

▮

45+3'

48'

⚽

M. Rogers

Assist · D. Malen · 1–1

53'

▮

John McGinn

Yellow Card

Ethan Ampadu

Yellow Card

▮

63'

68'

⇄

R. Barkley ↓ · J. McGinn ↑

Substitution 3

68'

⇄

J. Sancho ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 4

D. James ↓ · L. Nmecha ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

D. Calvert-Lewin ↓ ·

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

Pascal Struijk

Yellow Card

▮

74'

75'

⚽

M. Rogers

1–2

W. Gnonto ↓ · N. Okafor ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

J. Piroe ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

84'

⇄

L. Bogarde ↓ · Y. Tielemans ↑

Substitution 5

Wilfried Gnonto

Yellow Card

▮

89'

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Aston Villa won 2–1 away at Leeds. At half-time it was 1–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Nmecha (8'), M. Rogers (48'), M. Rogers (75').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.50 units (Brier 0.159).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.00	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.78	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.48	—	49%	Cashed	+1.48	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.23	—	39%	Cashed	+1.23	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.76	—	49%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.87	—	45%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.61	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.24	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.41	—	76%	Cashed	+0.41	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.30	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.17	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	—	81%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.37	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.39	—	66%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.25	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.50u	−21% ROI