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Home › England › Premier League › Leeds — Aston Villa

Predictions by Market: Leeds vs Aston Villa

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Leeds
Leeds
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 23 Nov · 14:00
1:2
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
Elland Road · Leeds Referee Robert Jones, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LEE
24%
Best 3.00
Draw
27%
Best 3.28
Away Win · AST
49%
Best 2.45
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.30
Fair odds
2.92
book 3.30 · +13.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 34% · EV +13.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (66%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 49%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 23.7%
Odds 3.17
Show model details
Implied probability 31.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 27.4%
Odds 3.37
Show model details
Implied probability 29.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 60.8%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 39.2%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 34.3%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.1%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 80.7%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.9%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 19.4%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 55.2%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality High
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 44.8%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 49%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 23.7%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 51%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.41
Show model details
Implied probability 70.9%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEE – AST @ 3.30
+13.0%
Edge
Forecast →