Match Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest November 22, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.66 — +12.6% better than the market.

Liverpool enter this clash with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, boasting a solid attacking threat against Nottingham Forest's less robust defense. Their recent form shows resilience despite a couple of setbacks, while Forest's mixed results hint at inconsistency. The home side's pressing and compact block should limit Forest's chances, suggesting a controlled game with moderate goal flow.

Home attacking pressure vs away defensive frailties
Superior form and tactical cohesion at Anfield
Moderate pace expected, favoring Liverpool's control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.66 ✓ Cashed

AI 68% Implied 60% +0.66u

+66%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LIV 4-3-3 · NOT 4-2-3-1

LIV · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · NOT

18 Gakpo

Subs used · LIV

55'

Ekitike ↑ ·

Konate ↓

68'

Chiesa ↑ ·

Isak ↓

68'

Robertson ↑ ·

Kerkez ↓

78'

Ngumoha ↑ ·

Jones ↓

Subs used · NOT

61'

Hutchinson ↑ ·

Dominguez ↓

86'

Hudson-Odoi ↑ ·

Ndoye ↓

86'

Yates ↑ ·

Jesus ↓

📊 Statistics

LIV 0 – 3 NOT

75%

Possession (%)

25%

2.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 0 – 3

33'

⚽

Murillo

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

46'

⚽

N. Savona

Assist · N. Williams · 0–2

H. Ekitike ↓ · I. Konate ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

61'

⇄

O. Hutchinson ↓ · N. Dominguez ↑

Substitution 1

Ryan Gravenberch

Yellow Card

▮

66'

F. Chiesa ↓ · A. Isak ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

A. Robertson ↓ · M. Kerkez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

68'

R. Ngumoha ↓ · C. Jones ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

⚽

M. Gibbs-White

0–3

86'

⇄

C. Hudson-Odoi ↓ · D. Ndoye ↑

Substitution 2

86'

⇄

R. Yates ↓ · Igor Jesus ↑

Substitution 3

Federico Chiesa

Yellow Card

▮

87'

Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Nottingham Forest won 3–0 away at Liverpool. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 75% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.02 to 1.32. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 15, 4 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.32 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: Murillo (33'), N. Savona (46'), M. Gibbs-White (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +7.11 units (Brier 0.311).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.66	—	68%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.55	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.11	—	51%	Cashed	+1.11	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.77	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.45	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.45	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.12	—	91%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.05	—	28%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.57	—	54%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.15	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	18.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.14	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	93%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	—	77%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Away Win	8.00	—	9%	Cashed	+7.00	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.50	—	9%	Cashed	+4.50	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+7.11u	+42% ROI