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⚽ Football 57 ＋ Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football › Spain › La Liga › Real Madrid — Athletic Club
Spain   /   La Liga
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 D W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
2:1
Live · 45'
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
L W L L D Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee J. Martinez
Home Win · REA
69%
Best 1.52
Draw
20%
Best 4.98
Away Win · BIL
12%
Best 6.50
Best bet
Over 3.5
@ 2.42
Fair odds
2.37
book 2.42 · +2.3% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
Low
p 42% · EV +2.3%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Real Madrid arrive with clear quality and home momentum, boasting a strong attacking edge against Athletic's defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Athletic struggles for consistency and faces a tough defensive test at the Bernabéu. Expect Real Madrid's compact block and set-piece threat to challenge Athletic's less potent attack.

  • Home advantage with a pressing edge
  • Superior offensive vs defensive matchup
  • Real's recent form outshines Athletic's struggles

⚖ Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
Home Win 1.52 1.50 69% +4.4% Watch
Over 3.5 2.42 2.30 42% +2.3% Watch
Double Chance 1X 1.14 1.14 88% +0.6% Watch
Under 1.5 6.00 5.00 17% +0.1% Watch
BTTS No 2.30 2.21 43% −1.3% Pass
Draw 5.00 4.63 20% −2.1% Pass
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 96% −2.4% Pass
Under 3.5 1.67 1.65 58% −3.6% Pass
Under 2.5 2.63 2.53 36% −4.1% Pass
Over 2.5 1.50 1.47 64% −4.7% Pass
Over 1.5 1.14 1.13 83% −5.0% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.66 1.63 57% −5.2% Pass
Under 0.5 21.00 17.00 4% −10.2% Pass
Double Chance X2 2.74 2.66 31% −14.2% Pass
Away Win 6.55 5.90 12% −23.1% Pass
Home Win
book 1.52 · fair 1.50 · 69%
+4.4%
Watch
Over 3.5
book 2.42 · fair 2.30 · 42%
+2.3%
Watch
Double Chance 1X
book 1.14 · fair 1.14 · 88%
+0.6%
Watch
Under 1.5
book 6.00 · fair 5.00 · 17%
+0.1%
Watch
BTTS No
book 2.30 · fair 2.21 · 43%
−1.3%
Pass
Draw
book 5.00 · fair 4.63 · 20%
−2.1%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.02 · fair 1.02 · 96%
−2.4%
Pass
Under 3.5
book 1.67 · fair 1.65 · 58%
−3.6%
Pass
Under 2.5
book 2.63 · fair 2.53 · 36%
−4.1%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 1.50 · fair 1.47 · 64%
−4.7%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.14 · fair 1.13 · 83%
−5.0%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.66 · fair 1.63 · 57%
−5.2%
Pass
Under 0.5
book 21.00 · fair 17.00 · 4%
−10.2%
Pass
Double Chance X2
book 2.74 · fair 2.66 · 31%
−14.2%
Pass
Away Win
book 6.55 · fair 5.90 · 12%
−23.1%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

⚔ Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.97
Goals Scored
1.11
0.89
Goals Conceded
1.46
1.99
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
6.62
Shots on Target
4.59
6.41
Corners
5.84
59
Possession (%)
49.22
97.57
Efficiency index
87.23
122.18
Adjusted index
75.62
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
90
OFF · home
50
65
DEF · home
100
90
OFF · away
65
100
DEF · away
80
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

①
Real Madrid wins when scoring first
67%
①
Athletic Club wins when scoring first
67%
⚽
Real Madrid BTTS rate · last 10
60%
⚽
Athletic Club BTTS rate · last 10
50%
↑
Real Madrid Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
↑
Athletic Club Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
↩
Real Madrid comeback rate · last 10
0%
↩
Athletic Club comeback rate · last 10
25%

🔥 Goal timing

Real Madrid · last 10 at home

0–15 8%
16–30 12%
31–45 16%
46–60 32%
61–75 12%
76–90 20%

Athletic Club · last 10 away

0–15 8%
16–30 8%
31–45 15%
46–60 23%
61–75 23%
76–90 23%
Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.

Top scorers

Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé
REA · Attacker
24 G · 0.86 g/90
Vinícius Júnior
Vinícius Júnior
REA · Attacker
16 G · 0.51 g/90
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta
BIL · Attacker
9 G · 0.39 g/90

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
MA
@maksymovmp
ROI -5.1%
46 minutes from now
La Liga Sa 23 May · 19:00
Real Madrid Real Madrid
2 : 1 live '
Athletic Club Athletic Club
Goals Over/Under First Half Over 1.5 @ 2.23
Stake 96 coins
→
Payout 214 pending
P/L +118 potential vs stake
⋯ Pending