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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Valencia — Barcelona
Spain   /   La Liga
Valencia
Valencia
Home · last 5 W L W D W
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
0:0
Live · 45'
Barcelona
Barcelona
W W W L W Away · last 5
Estadio de Mestalla · Valencia Referee A. Cordero
Home Win · VAL
19%
Best 3.53
Draw
22%
Best 4.21
Away Win · BAR
59%
Best 2.02
Best bet
Away Win
@ 1.93
Fair odds
1.70
book 1.93 · +13.3% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
High
p 59% · EV +13.3%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Barcelona arrives at Estadio de Mestalla with a clear quality edge and strong recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite Valencia's home momentum. Valencia's defensive solidity may be tested by Barcelona's potent attack, which has shown consistent goal threat. The match hints at an open tempo with a good chance of multiple goals given the attacking mismatch and recent scoring trends.

  • Barcelona's offensive firepower vs Valencia's defense
  • Valencia's home resilience but lower overall quality
  • Recent form favors Barcelona's confidence and rhythm

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
Away Win 1.93 1.98 59% +13.3% Watch
Double Chance X2 1.31 1.32 81% +6.3% Watch
Over 3.5 2.18 2.20 48% +5.2% Watch
Over 2.5 1.44 1.44 69% −0.8% Pass
BTTS No 2.80 2.66 35% −1.3% Pass
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 96% −1.8% Pass
Over 1.5 1.14 1.13 86% −2.1% Pass
Draw 4.26 4.10 22% −4.6% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.44 1.43 65% −6.7% Pass
Under 3.5 1.79 1.67 52% −7.4% Pass
Under 1.5 6.50 5.50 14% −7.9% Pass
Under 2.5 2.88 2.62 31% −10.5% Pass
Double Chance 1X 1.97 1.83 41% −18.7% Pass
Under 0.5 21.00 19.00 4% −21.0% Pass
Home Win 3.80 3.40 19% −28.2% Pass
Away Win
book 1.93 · fair 1.98 · 59%
+13.3%
Watch
Double Chance X2
book 1.31 · fair 1.32 · 81%
+6.3%
Watch
Over 3.5
book 2.18 · fair 2.20 · 48%
+5.2%
Watch
Over 2.5
book 1.44 · fair 1.44 · 69%
−0.8%
Pass
BTTS No
book 2.80 · fair 2.66 · 35%
−1.3%
Pass
Over 0.5
book 1.02 · fair 1.02 · 96%
−1.8%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.14 · fair 1.13 · 86%
−2.1%
Pass
Draw
book 4.26 · fair 4.10 · 22%
−4.6%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.44 · fair 1.43 · 65%
−6.7%
Pass
Under 3.5
book 1.79 · fair 1.67 · 52%
−7.4%
Pass
Under 1.5
book 6.50 · fair 5.50 · 14%
−7.9%
Pass
Under 2.5
book 2.88 · fair 2.62 · 31%
−10.5%
Pass
Double Chance 1X
book 1.97 · fair 1.83 · 41%
−18.7%
Pass
Under 0.5
book 21.00 · fair 19.00 · 4%
−21.0%
Pass
Home Win
book 3.80 · fair 3.40 · 19%
−28.2%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.16
Goals Scored
2.54
1.46
Goals Conceded
0.89
1.29
Expected Goals (xG)
2.27
3.16
Shots on Target
6.84
5
Corners
6.86
48.27
Possession (%)
68.65
94.06
Efficiency index
109.12
75.94
Adjusted index
138.54
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
45
OFF · home
95
75
DEF · home
85
45
OFF · away
95
65
DEF · away
55
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Valencia wins when scoring first
75%
Barcelona wins when scoring first
100%
Valencia BTTS rate · last 10
50%
Barcelona BTTS rate · last 10
50%
Valencia Over 2.5 · last 10
30%
Barcelona Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
Valencia comeback rate · last 10
Barcelona comeback rate · last 10
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Valencia · last 10 at home

0–15 14%
16–30 0%
31–45 7%
46–60 36%
61–75 7%
76–90 36%

Barcelona · last 10 away

0–15 13%
16–30 0%
31–45 19%
46–60 6%
61–75 31%
76–90 31%
Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.

Top scorers

Hugo Duro
VAL · Attacker
10 G · 0.47 g/90
Lamine Yamal
BAR · Attacker
16 G · 0.63 g/90
Ferran Torres
BAR · Attacker
16 G · 0.76 g/90

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
MA
@maksymovmp
ROI -5.1%
44 minutes from now
La Liga Sa 23 May · 19:00
Valencia Valencia
0 : 0 live '
Barcelona Barcelona
Goals Over/Under First Half Under 0.5 @ 3.84
Stake 112 coins
Payout 430 pending
P/L +318 potential vs stake
Pending