Villarreal vs Real Sociedad 3:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.31 — +7.2% better than the market.

Villarreal show clear home momentum with a stronger overall quality and a notable edge in attack against Real Sociedad's defense. Their recent form is slightly better, suggesting they can control the pace at Estadio de la Ceramica. Expect a tactical battle where Villarreal's pressing and set-piece threat could exploit Sociedad's defensive vulnerabilities.

Home side's offensive firepower vs away defensive gaps
Recent form favors Villarreal's consistency
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.31 ✓ Cashed

AI 82% Implied 76% +0.31u

+31%

ROI on stake

Lineups

VIL 4-4-2 · RSO 4-4-2

VIL · 4-4-2 4-4-2 · RSO

9 Mikautadze ⚽

Subs used · VIL

74'

Gonzalez ↑ ·

Moleiro ↓

74'

Buchanan ↑ ·

Moreno ↓

89'

Parejo ↑ ·

Gueye ↓

89'

Partey ↑ ·

Comesana ↓

89'

Oluwaseyi ↑ ·

Mikautadze ↓

Subs used · RSO

46'

Sucic ↑ ·

Gorrotxategi ↓

54'

Caleta-Car ↑ ·

Zubeldia ↓

68'

Elustondo ↑ ·

Aramburu ↓

68'

Oskarsson ↑ ·

Mendez ↓

82'

Zakharyan ↑ ·

Oyarzabal ↓

Statistics

VIL 3 – 1 RSO

35%

Possession (%)

65%

3.51

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.18

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 3 – 1

G. Moreno

Assist · S. Comesana · 1–0

⚽

G. Mikautadze

2–0

⚽

15'

N. Pepe

Assist · G. Mikautadze · 3–0

⚽

23'

38'

▮

Jon Aramburu

Yellow Card

Half-time · 3 – 0

46'

⇄

L. Sucic ↓ · J. Gorrotxategi ↑

Substitution 1

47'

⚽

L. Sucic

3–1

54'

⇄

D. Caleta-Car ↓ · I. Zubeldia ↑

Substitution 2

68'

⇄

A. Elustondo ↓ · J. Aramburu ↑

Substitution 3

68'

⇄

O. Oskarsson ↓ · B. Mendez ↑

Substitution 4

A. Gonzalez ↓ · A. Moleiro ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

74'

T. Buchanan ↓ · G. Moreno ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

78'

▮

Gonçalo Guedes

Yellow Card

82'

⇄

A. Zakharyan ↓ · M. Oyarzabal ↑

Substitution 5

D. Parejo ↓ · P. Gueye ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

89'

T. Partey ↓ · S. Comesana ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

89'

T. Oluwaseyi ↓ · G. Mikautadze ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Villarreal beat Real Sociedad 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.51 to 1.18. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 11, 10 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.

On the scoresheet: G. Moreno (7'), G. Mikautadze (15'), N. Pepe (23'), L. Sucic (47').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.12 units (Brier 0.150).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.05	—	57%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.86	—	54%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
BTTS No	2.24	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	56%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.11	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.93	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.31	—	82%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.15	—	32%	Cashed	+2.15	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.45	—	57%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	77%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Draw	3.80	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.60	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.92	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.10	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.12u	−18% ROI

Villarreal vs Real Sociedad 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled