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Home › Spain › La Liga › Villarreal — Elche

Villarreal vs Elche 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Villarreal
Villarreal
Home · last 5 W D L L W
Kick-off
Sun 08 Mar · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Elche
Elche
L D L W D Away · last 5
Estadio de la Cerámica · Villarreal Referee Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 45% · book 2.45 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 2.15 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 52% · book 1.76 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.62 – 1.29
Δ +0.33
Possession
37% – 63%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 5.00 — +10.2% better than the market.

Villarreal hold a clear quality edge over Elche, boosted by a solid home momentum with recent wins and a strong attacking setup against Elche's leaky defense. The home side's pressing and compact block should exploit Elche's fragile form, who have struggled to find consistency. Expect a controlled tempo favoring Villarreal's offensive rhythm, with a moderate goal environment given the balanced defensive efforts.

  • Home attacking edge vs away defense
  • Recent form favors Villarreal
  • Moderate pace with tactical control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 5.00 ✗ Lost
AI 22% Implied 20% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

VIL 4-4-2 · ELC 3-5-2
VIL · 4-4-2 3-5-2 · ELC 1 Júnior 15 Mouriño ⚽ 6 Navarro 4 Marín 23 Cardona 17 Buchanan ⚽ 14 Comesaña 18 Gueye 20 Moleiro 19 Pépé 9 Mikautadze 1 Dituro 23 Chust 22 Affengruber 21 Pétrot 42 Sangare 19 Diangana 8 Aguado 14 Febas 11 Valera 20 Rodriguez 10 Mir
Subs used · VIL
65' Moreno ↑ · Moleiro ↓
65' Gonzalez ↑ · Buchanan ↓
75' Parejo ↑ · Comesana ↓
75' Partey ↑ · Gueye ↓
76' Veiga ↑ · Navarro ↓
Subs used · ELC
59' Neto ↑ · Diangana ↓
68' Josan ↑ · Sangare ↓
68' Redondo Solari ↑ · Aguado ↓
68' Villar ↑ · Febas ↓
77' Silva ↑ · Mir ↓

Statistics

VIL 2 – 1 ELC
37%
Possession (%)
63%
1.62
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.29
16
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Target
6
6
Shots off Target
6
12
Shots Inside Box
9
4
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
16
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
1
Yellow Cards
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

16 · 2 – 1
T. Buchanan
Assist · P. Gueye · 1–0
⚽
31'
S. Mourino
Assist · S. Comesana · 2–0
⚽
41'
Alberto Moleiro
Yellow Card
▮
43'
Half-time · 2 – 0
59'
⇄
M. Neto ↓ · G. Diangana ↑
Substitution 1
G. Moreno ↓ · A. Moleiro ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
A. Gonzalez ↓ · T. Buchanan ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
68'
⇄
Josan ↓ · Buba Sangare ↑
Substitution 2
68'
⇄
F. Redondo Solari ↓ · M. Aguado ↑
Substitution 3
68'
⇄
G. Villar ↓ · A. Febas ↑
Substitution 4
74'
▮
Martim Neto
Yellow Card
D. Parejo ↓ · S. Comesana ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
T. Partey ↓ · P. Gueye ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
R. Veiga ↓ · P. Navarro ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
76'
77'
⇄
Andre Silva ↓ · R. Mir ↑
Substitution 5
83'
⚽
Andre Silva
Assist · M. Neto · 2–1
90+6'
▮
André Silva
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Villarreal beat Elche 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes.

On the scoresheet: T. Buchanan (31'), S. Mourino (41'), Andre Silva (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.90 units (Brier 0.093).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.45 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.15 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.76 — 52% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.65 — 55% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.77 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.55 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.54 — 68% Cashed +0.54 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.57 — 67% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.00 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.15 — 89% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.19 — 68% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 94% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 4.80 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.20 — 78% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Away Win 6.41 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.13 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.90u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
VIL – ELC @ 5.00
+10.2%
Edge
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