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Home › Spain › La Liga › Real Madrid — Levante

Real Madrid vs Levante 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 13:00
2:0
Full-time
Levante
Levante
L W W W L Away · last 5
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium · Madrid Referee Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 55% · book 2.30 ✗
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 53% · book 2.02 ✗
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 47% · book 2.21 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
2.61 – 0.80
Δ +1.81
Possession
70% – 30%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.02 — +7.5% better than the market.

Real Madrid hosts Levante with a clear quality edge and home momentum after recent wins. Their potent attack faces a struggling Levante defense, suggesting a high chance of goals. Levante’s recent form shows resilience but lacks consistency, while Real’s compact block and set-piece threat add pressure. Expect a lively pace given the attacking profiles and favorable over 2.5 goals odds.

  • Strong home attacking edge
  • Levante’s defensive vulnerabilities
  • Real’s recent winning form

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 2.02 ✗ Lost
AI 53% Implied 50% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

REA 4-3-3 · LEV 4-2-3-1
REA · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · LEV 1 Courtois 8 Valverde 17 Asencio ⚽ 24 Huijsen 18 Carreras 6 Camavinga 14 Tchouaméni 5 Bellingham 16 García 10 Mbappé ⚽ 7 Júnior 13 Ryan 22 Toljan 4 Fuente 3 Matturro 23 Sánchez 12 Vencedor 10 Martínez 26 Tunde 24 Álvarez 9 Romero 21 Eyong
Subs used · REA
46' Guler ↑ · Camavinga ↓
46' Mastantuono ↑ · Garcia ↓
61' Ceballos ↑ · Huijsen ↓
90' Alaba ↑ · Asencio ↓
Subs used · LEV
66' Raghouber ↑ · Vencedor ↓
66' Losada ↑ · Etta Eyong ↓
83' A. Olasagasti ↑ · Romero ↓
83' Cortes ↑ · Alvarez ↓
83' Espi ↑ · Tunde ↓

Statistics

REA 2 – 0 LEV
70%
Possession (%)
30%
2.61
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.80
26
Total Shots
10
11
Shots on Target
0
10
Shots off Target
8
15
Shots Inside Box
5
8
Corner Kicks
0
0
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
14
92%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
9

Match events

14 · 2 – 0
17'
▮
Unai Vencedor
Yellow Card
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Yellow Card
▮
31'
Gonzalo García
Yellow Card
▮
43'
Half-time · 0 – 0
A. Guler ↓ · E. Camavinga ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
F. Mastantuono ↓ · G. Garcia ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
K. Mbappe (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
58'
D. Ceballos ↓ · D. Huijsen ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
R. Asencio
Assist · A. Guler · 2–0
⚽
65'
66'
⇄
U. Raghouber ↓ · U. Vencedor ↑
Substitution 1
66'
⇄
I. Losada ↓ · K. Etta Eyong ↑
Substitution 2
83'
⇄
J. A. Olasagasti ↓ · I. Romero ↑
Substitution 3
83'
⇄
P. Cortes ↓ · C. Alvarez ↑
Substitution 4
83'
⇄
C. Espi ↓ · K. Tunde ↑
Substitution 5
D. Alaba ↓ · R. Asencio ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Levante 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 70% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 92% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.61 to 0.80. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 26 shots to 10, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Mbappe (58'), R. Asencio (65').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.75 units (Brier 0.140).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 2.30 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.02 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 2.21 — 47% Cashed +1.21 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 — 45% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Draw 10.11 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.04 — 96% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Home Win 1.17 — 84% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.02 — 84% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.37 — 74% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 6.10 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 — 97% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 2.5 3.75 — 26% Cashed +2.75 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.09 — 89% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Under 1.5 8.00 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 34.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 18.00 — 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 15.00 — 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.75u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
REA – LEV @ 2.02
+7.5%
Edge
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