Match Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca January 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Rayo Vallecano hosts Mallorca in a La Liga clash where Mallorca holds a clear quality edge. Despite Rayo's slightly better recent points per game, Mallorca's stronger overall strength and more solid defensive numbers suggest they can absorb pressure well. The home side's defensive frailty contrasts with Mallorca's compact block, hinting at a tactical battle where Mallorca may control tempo.

Home momentum tempered by defensive struggles
Away side's disciplined defense and counter threat
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

RAY 4-2-3-1 · MAL 4-4-2

RAY · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · MAL

19 Frutos ⚽

Subs used · RAY

38'

Balliu ↑ ·

Ratiu ↓

69'

Gumbau ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

69'

Pacha ↑ ·

de Frutos ↓

79'

Perez ↑ ·

Martin ↓

81'

Nteka ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

Subs used · MAL

59'

Joseph ↑ ·

Lato ↓

70'

Darder ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

70'

Torre ↑ ·

Mascarell ↓

81'

Prats ↑ ·

Maffeo ↓

81'

Llabres ↑ ·

Costa ↓

📊 Statistics

RAY 2 – 1 MAL

53%

Possession (%)

47%

2.32

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.72

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 2 – 1

J. de Frutos

Assist · A. Garcia · 1–0

⚽

15'

▮

Johan Mojica

Yellow Card

30'

⚽

V. Muriqi

Assist · T. Lato · 1–1

I. Balliu ↓ · A. Ratiu ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

38'

40'

▮

Martin Valjent

Yellow Card

I. Palazon (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

42'

Half-time · 2 – 1

Jorge de Frutos

Yellow Card

▮

46'

58'

▮

Toni Lato

Yellow Card

59'

⇄

M. Joseph ↓ · T. Lato ↑

Substitution 1

61'

▮

Pablo Maffeo

Yellow Card

G. Gumbau ↓ · P. Diaz ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

Pacha ↓ · J. de Frutos ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

70'

⇄

S. Darder ↓ · A. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 2

70'

⇄

P. Torre ↓ · O. Mascarell ↑

Substitution 3

F. Perez ↓ · C. Martin ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

Óscar Valentín

Red Card

▮

80'

R. Nteka ↓ · A. Garcia ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

⇄

A. Prats ↓ · P. Maffeo ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

J. Llabres ↓ · Samu Costa ↑

Substitution 5

86'

▮

Pablo Torre

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano beat Mallorca 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.32 to 0.72. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 9, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. de Frutos (4'), V. Muriqi (30'), I. Palazon (42'). Óscar Valentín was sent off in the 80' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.82 units (Brier 0.182).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.95	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.61	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.73	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.54	—	37%	Cashed	+1.54	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.24	—	42%	Cashed	+1.24	Cashed
Home Win	1.97	—	43%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Away Win	4.80	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.88	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.50	—	64%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.23	—	71%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.41	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.12	—	88%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.20	—	82%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.37	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	5.10	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.38	—	43%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.82u	−22% ROI