Match Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia December 1, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.83 — +8.5% better than the market.

Rayo Vallecano and Valencia appear evenly matched with similar overall strength, but Rayo's home edge and slightly better recent form suggest a tight contest. Rayo's defensive solidity contrasts with Valencia's more vulnerable backline, while both sides show modest attacking threat, hinting at a cautious pace. Expect a compact game where set-pieces and defensive discipline could be decisive.

Home momentum and defensive resilience favor Rayo
Valencia's away struggles may limit offensive impact
Moderate tempo likely with few clear-cut chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.83 ✓ Cashed

AI 59% Implied 55% +0.83u

+83%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

RAY 4-1-4-1 · VAL 4-2-3-1

RAY · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · VAL

19 Frutos

Subs used · RAY

69'

Pacha ↑ ·

Perez ↓

69'

Alemao ↑ ·

Lopez ↓

83'

Balliu ↑ ·

de Frutos ↓

83'

Felipe ↑ ·

Mendy ↓

90+2'

Camello ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

Subs used · VAL

57'

Danjuma ↑ ·

Guerra ↓

74'

Beltran ↑ ·

Duro ↓

74'

Ugrinic ↑ ·

Rioja ↓

90+2'

Santamaria ↑ ·

Pepelu ↓

90+2'

Raba ↑ ·

Lopez ↓

📊 Statistics

RAY 1 – 1 VAL

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.30

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.71

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 1

N. Mendy

Assist · G. Gumbau · 1–0

⚽

37'

Half-time · 1 – 0

57'

⇄

A. Danjuma ↓ · J. Guerra ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⚽

D. Lopez

1–1

Pacha ↓ · F. Perez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

69'

Alemao ↓ · U. Lopez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

71'

▮

Thierry Correia

Yellow Card

74'

⇄

L. Beltran ↓ · H. Duro ↑

Substitution 2

74'

⇄

F. Ugrinic ↓ · L. Rioja ↑

Substitution 3

I. Balliu ↓ · J. de Frutos ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

Luiz Felipe ↓ · N. Mendy ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

S. Camello ↓ · A. Garcia ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+2'

⇄

B. Santamaria ↓ · Pepelu ↑

Substitution 4

90+2'

⇄

D. Raba ↓ · D. Lopez ↑

Substitution 5

Alemão

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano and Valencia drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.30 to 0.71. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 10, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: N. Mendy (37'), D. Lopez (64').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.79 units (Brier 0.159).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.83	—	59%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.92	—	52%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Home Win	2.00	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.17	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	44%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Away Win	4.50	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.31	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.26	—	75%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.10	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.41	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	—	79%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	89%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.50	—	27%	Cashed	+2.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.38	—	67%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.00	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.79u	−16% ROI