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Home › Spain › La Liga › Atletico Madrid — Sevilla

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W L
Kick-off
Sat 01 Nov · 15:15
3:0
Full-time
Sevilla
Sevilla
W W W L L Away · last 5
Referee Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 42% · book 2.40 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 50% · book 2.01 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.70 ✓
Total goals
3
3 · 0
xG (open play)
3.47 – 0.46
Δ +3.01
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 5.89 — +3.7% better than the market.

Atletico Madrid enter this clash with clear home momentum, showing strong form and a notable quality edge over Sevilla. Their robust defense faces a less potent Sevilla attack, suggesting a tactical battle where Atletico's pressing and compact block could limit away chances. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but Atletico's home edge and recent consistency favor them controlling the tempo.

  • Home side's defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
  • Recent form advantage and home momentum
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 5.89 ✗ Lost
AI 18% Implied 17% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ATM 4-4-2 · SEV 4-2-3-1
ATM · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · SEV 13 Oblak 14 Llorente 2 Giménez 17 Hancko 3 Ruggeri 20 Simeone 10 Baena 6 Koke 23 González 9 Sørloth 19 Alvarez ⚽ 1 Vlachodimos 2 Carmona 3 Azpilicueta 23 Marcão 12 Suazo 19 Mendy 20 Sow 16 Sánchez 14 Fernández 11 Vargas 7 Romero
Subs used · ATM
68' Almada ↑ · Sorloth ↓
69' Gallagher ↑ · Gonzalez ↓
74' Griezmann ↑ · Baena ↓
86' Molina ↑ · Alvarez ↓
86' Raspadori ↑ · Simeone ↓
Subs used · SEV
46' Nianzou ↑ · Azpilicueta ↓
46' Gudelj ↑ · Mendy ↓
72' Adams ↑ · Sanchez ↓
79' Ejuke ↑ · Romero ↓
79' Gonzalez ↑ · Peque ↓

Statistics

ATM 3 – 0 SEV
48%
Possession (%)
52%
3.47
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.46
15
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
2
6
Shots off Target
7
12
Shots Inside Box
5
9
Corner Kicks
4
9
Fouls
12
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
0
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 3 – 0
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
⇄
T. Nianzou ↓ · C. Azpilicueta ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
N. Gudelj ↓ · B. Mendy ↑
Substitution 2
54'
▮
Isaac Romero
Yellow Card
63'
▮
Tanguy Nianzou
Yellow Card
J. Alvarez (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
64'
T. Almada ↓ · A. Sorloth ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
C. Gallagher ↓ · N. Gonzalez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
69'
72'
⇄
A. Adams ↓ · J. Sanchez ↑
Substitution 3
A. Griezmann ↓ · A. Baena ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
77'
▮
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Yellow Card
T. Almada
Assist · G. Simeone · 2–0
⚽
77'
79'
⇄
C. Ejuke ↓ · I. Romero ↑
Substitution 4
79'
⇄
A. Gonzalez ↓ · Peque ↑
Substitution 5
N. Molina ↓ · J. Alvarez ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
G. Raspadori ↓ · G. Simeone ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
86'
A. Griezmann
Assist · T. Almada · 3–0
⚽
90'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Atletico Madrid beat Sevilla 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.47 to 0.46. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Alvarez (64'), T. Almada (77'), A. Griezmann (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.01 units (Brier 0.084).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.40 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.01 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.70 — 58% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
BTTS No 1.91 — 50% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.63 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.38 — 75% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 — 92% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.55 — 64% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.10 — 75% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 5.89 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.10 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 95% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.21 — 81% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.50 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 3.54 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 9.50 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.80 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.01u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
ATM – SEV @ 5.89
+3.7%
Edge
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