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Home › Spain › La Liga › Celta Vigo — Atletico Madrid

Match Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid October 5, 2025 — Result and Stats

Spain   /   La Liga
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
Home · last 5 W W L D W
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 19:00
1:1
Full-time
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
W L W W L Away · last 5
Referee César Soto Grado, Spain
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 77% · book 1.63 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 61% · book 1.65 ✓
Hit
Draw
Draw
AI 27% · book 3.26 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
2.05 – 0.30
Δ +1.75
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
5 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid — prediction & betting tips. Our numbers point to a medium tempo game (~2.50 expected goals) with Atletico Madrid hold a modest edge at home. The draw remains live, but the base edge skews the market toward value on core angles.

We prioritise mainstream markets (1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5) and only add secondary lines where the price meaningfully overhangs our estimate. Main risks: early goal changing game-state and set-piece variance.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

CEL 3-4-2-1 · ATM 4-4-2
CEL · 3-4-2-1 4-4-2 · ATM 13 Radu 32 Rodríguez 2 Starfelt 20 Alonso 3 Mingueza 14 Rodríguez 8 Beltrán 5 Carreira 9 Jutglà 19 Swedberg 7 Iglesias 13 Oblak 14 Llorente 24 Normand 15 Lenglet 17 Hancko 20 Simeone 8 Barrios 6 Koke 23 González 7 Griezmann 19 Álvarez
Subs used · CEL
55' Alvarez ↑ · Beltran ↓
63' Aspas ↑ · Jutgla ↓
63' Zaragoza ↑ · Swedberg ↓
84' Moriba ↑ · Carreira ↓
84' Duran ↑ · Iglesias ↓
Subs used · ATM
46' Galan ↑ · Griezmann ↓
76' Baena ↑
77' Gallagher ↑ · Koke ↓
81' Sorloth ↑ · Alvarez ↓
82' Molina ↑ · Simeone ↓

📊 Statistics

CEL 1 – 1 ATM
59%
Possession (%)
41%
2.05
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.30
18
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Target
1
11
Shots off Target
4
9
Shots Inside Box
4
6
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
0
7
Fouls
10
91%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 1
6'
⚽
C. Starfelt
Own goal · Assist · P. Barrios · 0–1
25'
▮
Clément Lenglet
Yellow Card
40'
▮
Clément Lenglet
Yellow Card
40'
▮
Clément Lenglet
Red Card
Half-time · 0 – 1
46'
⇄
J. Galan ↓ · A. Griezmann ↑
Substitution 1
H. Alvarez ↓ · F. Beltran ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
55'
I. Aspas ↓ · F. Jutgla ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
B. Zaragoza ↓ · W. Swedberg ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
63'
Borja Iglesias
Yellow Card
▮
65'
I. Aspas
1–1
⚽
68'
76'
⇄
A. Baena ↓ ·
Substitution 2
77'
⇄
C. Gallagher ↓ · Koke ↑
Substitution 3
78'
▮
Alejandro Baena
Yellow Card
81'
⇄
A. Sorloth ↓ · J. Alvarez ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⇄
N. Molina ↓ · G. Simeone ↑
Substitution 5
I. Moriba ↓ · S. Carreira ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
P. Duran ↓ · B. Iglesias ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.05 to 0.30. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 6, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: C. Starfelt (6'), I. Aspas (68'). Clément Lenglet was sent off in the 40' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 5 landed and 2 missed, for a net +2.31 units (Brier 0.175).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 5 W · 2 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.63 — 77% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.65 — 61% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Draw 3.26 — 27% Cashed +2.26 Cashed
BTTS No 1.92 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.74 — 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 — 80% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.48 — 63% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 2 L +2.31u +33% ROI