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Home › Spain › La Liga › Real Sociedad — Rayo Vallecano

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
Home · last 5 L D D L D
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 16:30
0:1
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W W Away · last 5
Referee Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla, Spain
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 48% · book 2.17 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.80 ✓
Hit
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 31% · book 3.35 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.79 – 0.80
Δ −0.01
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
3 / 5
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.17 — +4.2% better than the market.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo — betting preview

Sociedad at home look a touch stronger in overall balance and structure, while Rayo’s recent form has dipped away from home. Expect the hosts to control more territory and keep chance quality modest; game state should be tight unless an early goal opens it up.

Our numbers shade toward Sociedad-favored outcomes and a slightly lower total. Angles that rate best combine home-sided protection with selective unders.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 2.17 ✗ Lost
AI 48% Implied 46% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RSO 4-1-4-1 · RAY 4-2-3-1
Subs used · RSO
61' Kubo ↑ · Soler ↓
61' Sucic ↑ · Guedes ↓
80' Karrikaburu ↑ · Barrenetxea ↓
80' Marin ↑ · Mendez ↓
Subs used · RAY
46' Perez ↑ · Garcia ↓
65' Diaz ↑ · Palazon ↓
71' Vertrouwd ↑ · Ciss ↓
77' Nteka ↑ · de Frutos ↓
77' Pacha ↑ · Alemao ↓

Statistics

RSO 0 – 1 RAY
51%
Possession (%)
49%
0.79
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.80
10
Total Shots
7
3
Shots on Target
2
1
Shots off Target
3
7
Shots Inside Box
5
7
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
1
13
Fouls
21
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

13 · 0 – 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
⇄
F. Perez ↓ · A. Garcia ↑
Substitution 1
Carlos Soler
Yellow Card
▮
60'
T. Kubo ↓ · C. Soler ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
L. Sucic ↓ · G. Guedes ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
62'
▮
Isi Palazón
Yellow Card
65'
⇄
P. Diaz ↓ · I. Palazon ↑
Substitution 2
71'
⇄
J. Vertrouwd ↓ · P. Ciss ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⇄
R. Nteka ↓ · J. de Frutos ↑
Substitution 4
77'
⇄
Pacha ↓ · Alemao ↑
Substitution 5
J. Karrikaburu ↓ · A. Barrenetxea ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
80'
P. Marin ↓ · B. Mendez ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
84'
⚽
Pacha
Assist · A. Ratiu · 0–1
90+2'
▮
Florian Lejeune
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano won 1–0 away at Real Sociedad. At half-time it was 0–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Pacha (84').

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 3 landed and 2 missed, for a net +3.95 units (Brier 0.301).

Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 3 W · 2 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.17 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.80 — 57% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.35 — 31% Cashed +2.35 Cashed
Away Win 3.80 — 26% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Draw 3.60 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each — — — 3 W · 2 L +3.95u +79% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
RSO – RAY @ 2.17
+4.2%
Edge
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