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Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Villarreal

Predictions Real Madrid vs Villarreal October 4, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Oct · 19:00
3:1
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
W D L L W Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
Home Win · REA
64%
Best 1.42
Draw
19%
Best 5.00
Away Win · VIL
18%
Best 6.60
Value pick
Away Win
@ 6.50
Fair odds
5.71
book 6.50 · +13.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 18% · EV +13.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (64%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 17.5%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 18.5%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 63.5%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 1 market
Over 2.5 Best in group
Probability 68%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 1 market
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 40%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 36%
Odds 2.83
Show model details
Implied probability 35.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 82%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
REA – VIL @ 6.50
+13.8%
Edge
Forecast →