Levante faces a tough challenge hosting Real Madrid, who arrive in excellent form with a strong defensive record and potent attack. Levante’s recent results show struggles, especially at home, with limited scoring and defensive vulnerabilities. Real Madrid’s consistency and ability to control games away from home suggest a clear advantage. The model favors an away win with a high probability, reflecting Real’s dominance and Levante’s difficulties. Goals are expected, supporting the over 2.5 goals market, while both teams scoring is also likely given Levante’s defensive lapses and Real’s attacking threat. Conservative options include double chance on Real Madrid or Asian handicap in their favor, offering value given the odds.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
LEV 4-4-2 · REA 3-4-2-1Subs used · LEV
65'
Brugue ↑
·
A. Olasagasti ↓
Brugue ↑
·
A. Olasagasti ↓
📊 Statistics
LEV 1 – 4 REA37%
Possession (%)
63%
1.60
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
3.94
11
Total Shots
24
2
Shots on Target
10
3
Shots off Target
11
8
Shots Inside Box
16
1
Corner Kicks
7
0
Offsides
1
17
Fouls
9
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
1
Yellow Cards
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
1
⏱ Match events
17 · 1 – 428'
⚽
Vinicius Junior
Assist · F. Valverde · 0–1
38'
⚽
F. Mastantuono
Assist · Vinicius Junior · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
54'
▮
Álvaro Carreras
Yellow Card
Etta Eyong
1–2
54'
Unai Elgezabal
Yellow Card
58'
64'
⚽
K. Mbappe (P)
Penalty · 1–3
R. Brugue ↓ · J. A. Olasagasti ↑
Substitution 1
65'
K. Arriaga ↓ · U. Vencedor ↑
Substitution 2
65'
66'
⚽
K. Mbappe
Assist · A. Guler · 1–4
71'
⇄
J. Bellingham ↓ · F. Valverde ↑
Substitution 1
71'
⇄
A. Tchouameni ↓ · F. Mastantuono ↑
Substitution 2
J. Morales ↓ · C. Alvarez ↑
Substitution 3
74'
G. Koyalipou ↓ · I. Romero ↑
Substitution 4
74'
I. Losada ↓ · Etta Eyong ↑
Substitution 5
74'
82'
⇄
D. Alaba ↓ · A. Carreras ↑
Substitution 3
82'
⇄
E. Camavinga ↓ · D. Ceballos ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⇄
Rodrygo ↓ · K. Mbappe ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 4
Match recap
Real Madrid won 4–1 away at Levante. At half-time it was 0–2.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.94 to 1.60. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 11, 10 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.
On the scoresheet: Vinicius Junior (28'), F. Mastantuono (38'), Etta Eyong (54'), K. Mbappe (64'), K. Mbappe (66').
Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 8 landed and 2 missed, for a net +0.90 units (Brier 0.079).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
10 · 8 W · 2 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.47 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.47 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.79 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.79 | Cashed |
| AH Away +0.5 | 1.32 | — | 78% | Cashed | +0.32 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 1.37 | — | 79% | Cashed | +0.37 | Cashed |
| Draw | 6.10 | — | 15% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 9.50 | — | 7% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.11 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.11 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 1.12 | — | 78% | Cashed | +0.12 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.65 | — | 40% | Cashed | +0.65 | Cashed |
| Away Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.07 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.07 | Cashed |
| Total · 10 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 2 L | +0.90u | +9% ROI |