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⚽ Football 57 ＋ Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Hamburger SV — SC Freiburg
Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
Home · last 5 L L W W D
Kick-off
Sun 10 May · 13:30
3:2
Full-time
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
W L D L W Away · last 5
Volksparkstadion · Hamburg Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 48% · book 2.47 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.23 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 46% · book 2.38 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
2.02 – 0.51
Δ +1.51
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.23 — +13.2% better than the market.

SC Freiburg arrives with a clear quality edge and a stronger offensive profile, while Hamburger SV shows signs of struggle in defense. The home side's recent form hints at some resilience, but Freiburg's sharper attack against a leaky defense could prove decisive. Expect a tactical battle with Freiburg pressing to exploit gaps and HSV relying on set-pieces and home momentum.

  • Freiburg's offensive edge vs HSV's defense
  • Home side's patchy recent form
  • Moderate pace suggested by odds, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.23 ✗ Lost
AI 51% Implied 45% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAM 3-4-2-1 · FRE 4-2-3-1
HAM · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · FRE 1 Heuer Fernandes 24 Capaldo 44 Vuskovic ⚽ 17 Omari 18 Jatta ⚽ 21 Remberg 6 S. Lokonga 23 Gronbaek 20 Vieira 11 Konigsdorffer 49 Stange 1 Atubolu 17 Kubler 28 Ginter 43 Ogbus 29 Treu 8 Eggestein 44 Manzambi 19 Beste 9 Holer 32 Grifo 31 Matanovic ⚽
Subs used · HAM
66' Balde ↑ · Jatta ↓
66' Philippe ↑ · Stange ↓
80' Poulsen ↑ · S. Lokonga ↓
90+6' Lemke ↑ · Vieira ↓
90+6' Nandja ↑ · Vuskovic ↓
Subs used · FRE
59' Hofler ↑ · Manzambi ↓
59' Makengo ↑ · Beste ↓
70' Lienhart ↑ · Ogbus ↓
70' Scherhant ↑ · Kubler ↓
71' Jung ↑ · Ginter ↓

📊 Statistics

HAM 3 – 2 FRE
47%
Possession (%)
53%
2.02
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.51
14
Total Shots
5
5
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
2
8
Shots Inside Box
2
2
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
8
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
2
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

⏱ Match events

19 · 3 – 2
B. Jatta
Assist · A. Gronbaek · 1–0
⚽
14'
16'
⚽
I. Matanovic
Assist · L. Kubler · 1–1
20'
▮
L. Kubler
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 1
59'
⇄
N. Hofler ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑
Substitution 1
59'
⇄
J. Makengo ↓ · J. Beste ↑
Substitution 2
L. Vuskovic
2–1
⚽
64'
L. Vuskovic
Yellow Card
▮
65'
F. Balde ↓ · B. Jatta ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
R. Philippe ↓ · O. Stange ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
F. Balde
Assist · N. Remberg · 3–1
⚽
67'
70'
⇄
P. Lienhart ↓ · B. Ogbus ↑
Substitution 3
70'
⇄
D. Scherhant ↓ · L. Kubler ↑
Substitution 4
71'
⇄
A. Jung ↓ · M. Ginter ↑
Substitution 5
Y. Poulsen ↓ · A. S. Lokonga ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
80'
86'
▮
L. Holer
Yellow Card
N. Capaldo
Yellow Card
▮
86'
87'
⚽
I. Matanovic
Assist · V. Grifo · 3–2
L. Lemke ↓ · F. Vieira ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+6'
S. Nandja ↓ · L. Vuskovic ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+6'
Full-time · 3 – 2

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.47 2.43 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.23 2.20 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.38 2.41 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.84 1.85 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.76 1.67 49% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.60 1.52 54% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.61 1.55 52% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.75 2.60 29% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.13 2.04 27% Cashed +1.13 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.47 1.44 73% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 4.50 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 1.46 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.89 2.70 27% Cashed +1.89 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 14.93 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 1.03 92% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 3.78 3.65 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.17 74% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.00u −12% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
HAM – FRE @ 2.23
+13.2%
Edge
Forecast →