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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › FSV Mainz 05 — Union Berlin

FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Home · last 5 D L W L W
Kick-off
Sun 10 May · 17:30
1:3
Full-time
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
L L D W W Away · last 5
MEWA Arena · Mainz Referee Florian Exner, Germany
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.79 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.23 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 47% · book 2.20 ✗
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
1.50 – 2.77
Δ −1.27
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.79 — +8.3% better than the market.

FSV Mainz 05 holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a stronger defensive setup and recent positive form. Their pressing and compact block could stifle Union Berlin, who struggle on the road and show patchy recent results. The home side’s offensive edge against Union’s defense suggests Mainz can control the game tempo, especially in a moderately paced match hinted by balanced goal odds.

  • Mainz’s home defensive solidity vs Union’s attack
  • Recent form favors Mainz’s confidence
  • Moderate pace likely to suit Mainz’s structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.79 ✗ Lost
AI 60% Implied 56% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MAI 3-5-2 · UNI 4-2-3-1
MAI · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · UNI 27 Zentner 21 da Costa 4 Posch 31 Kohr 19 Caci 8 Nebel 6 Sano 10 Amiri 2 Mwene 20 Tietz 23 Becker ⚽ 25 Klaus 28 Trimmel 5 Doekhi 4 Leite 15 Rothe 8 Khedira 6 Kemlein 7 Burke ⚽ 10 Ansah 9 Burcu 23 Ilic ⚽
Subs used · MAI
16' Potulski ↑ · da Costa ↓
70' Veratschnig ↑ · Caci ↓
70' Jae-Sung ↑ · Nebel ↓
81' Weiper ↑ · Tietz ↓
81' Sieb ↑ · Becker ↓
Subs used · UNI
60' Woo-Yeong ↑ · Burcu ↓
60' Kohn ↑ · Rothe ↓
60' Schafer ↑ · Ansah ↓
81' Juranovic ↑ · Trimmel ↓
89' Skarke ↑ · Burke ↓

Statistics

MAI 1 – 3 UNI
53%
Possession (%)
47%
1.50
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.77
14
Total Shots
16
3
Shots on Target
9
7
Shots off Target
6
10
Shots Inside Box
12
7
Corner Kicks
8
2
Offsides
0
11
Fouls
10
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

17 · 1 – 3
A. Caci
Yellow Card
▮
7'
K. Potulski ↓ · D. da Costa ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
16'
38'
⚽
A. Ilic
Assist · A. Kemlein · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
S. Becker
Assist · P. Nebel · 1–1
⚽
48'
60'
⇄
Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓ · L. Burcu ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
D. Kohn ↓ · T. Rothe ↑
Substitution 2
60'
⇄
A. Schafer ↓ · I. Ansah ↑
Substitution 3
N. Veratschnig ↓ · A. Caci ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
70'
Lee Jae-Sung ↓ · P. Nebel ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
70'
Lee Jae-Sung
Yellow Card
▮
75'
80'
▮
D. Kohn
Yellow Card
N. Weiper ↓ · P. Tietz ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
81'
A. Sieb ↓ · S. Becker ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
81'
⇄
J. Juranovic ↓ · C. Trimmel ↑
Substitution 4
88'
⚽
O. Burke
Assist · A. Ilic · 1–2
89'
⇄
T. Skarke ↓ · O. Burke ↑
Substitution 5
90+1'
⚽
J. Juranovic
Assist · T. Skarke · 1–3
Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Union Berlin won 3–1 away at FSV Mainz 05. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.77 to 1.50. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Ilic (38'), S. Becker (48'), O. Burke (88'), J. Juranovic (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.62 units (Brier 0.305).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.79 1.70 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.23 2.34 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.20 2.19 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.76 1.62 53% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.73 1.64 53% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.75 2.55 31% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.14 2.15 40% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.23 1.19 83% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 1.50 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.32 1.27 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 14.40 14.93 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 4.50 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 1.03 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 4.12 4.05 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.17 76% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Away Win 4.68 4.63 17% Cashed +3.68 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.30 3.45 17% Cashed +2.30 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.62u +10% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
MAI – UNI @ 1.79
+8.3%
Edge
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