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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Hamburger SV — 1899 Hoffenheim

Hamburger SV vs 1899 Hoffenheim 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
Home · last 5 L L W W D
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 16:30
1:2
Full-time
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
W W D W L Away · last 5
Volksparkstadion · Hamburger Referee Robert Schröder, Germany
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 60% · book 1.80 ✓
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 63% · book 1.66 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 42% · book 2.53 ✗
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
1.35 – 1.45
Δ −0.10
Possession
41% – 59%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.80 — +7.4% better than the market.

Hamburger SV faces a tough challenge against 1899 Hoffenheim at Volksparkstadion. Hoffenheim's higher overall quality and offensive edge suggest they can break down HSV's sturdy defense. Despite HSV's slight home momentum, Hoffenheim's sharper attack and recent form hint at an away advantage. The match may see a moderate pace given the balanced goal expectations.

  • Hoffenheim's offensive pressure vs HSV's defense
  • Home side's recent inconsistent form
  • Potential for Hoffenheim to control tempo

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed
AI 60% Implied 56% +0.80u
+80%
ROI on stake

Lineups

HAM 3-4-1-2 · HOF 3-4-2-1
HAM · 3-4-1-2 3-4-2-1 · HOF 1 Fernandes 24 Capaldo 25 Torunarigha 17 Omari 18 Jatta 21 Remberg 23 Grønbæk 2 Mikelbrencis 20 Vieira 9 Glatzel ⚽ 11 Königsdörffer 1 Baumann 2 Hranáč 5 Kabak 21 Hajdari 34 Coufal 7 Avdullahu 18 Burger 29 Touré 11 Asllani ⚽ 27 Kramarić 19 Lemperle ⚽
Subs used · HAM
64' Stange ↑ · Glatzel ↓
75' S. Lokonga ↑ · Mikelbrencis ↓
75' Gocholeishvili ↑ · Jatta ↓
88' Philippe ↑ · Omari ↓
88' Downs ↑ · Gronbaek ↓
Subs used · HOF
46' Bernardo ↑ · Hranac ↓
64' Promel ↑ · Asllani ↓
75' Prass ↑ · Kramaric ↓
85' Moerstedt ↑ · Lemperle ↓
85' Campbell ↑ · Toure ↓

Statistics

HAM 1 – 2 HOF
41%
Possession (%)
59%
1.35
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.45
12
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
6
5
Shots off Target
6
11
Shots Inside Box
8
4
Corner Kicks
9
1
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
18
74%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
2
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

19 · 1 – 2
8'
▮
Robin Hranáč
Yellow Card
18'
⚽
F. Asllani
Assist · V. Coufal · 0–1
32'
▮
Oliver Baumann
Yellow Card
R. Glatzel (P)
Penalty · 1–1
⚽
34'
45'
⚽
T. Lemperle
Assist · A. Hajdari · 1–2
Half-time · 1 – 2
46'
⇄
Bernardo ↓ · R. Hranac ↑
Substitution 1
Nicolai Remberg
Yellow Card
▮
49'
O. Stange ↓ · R. Glatzel ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
64'
64'
⇄
G. Promel ↓ · F. Asllani ↑
Substitution 2
68'
▮
Grischa Promel
Yellow Card
71'
▮
Wouter Burger
Yellow Card
A. S. Lokonga ↓ · W. Mikelbrencis ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
75'
G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · B. Jatta ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
75'
⇄
A. Prass ↓ · A. Kramaric ↑
Substitution 3
85'
⇄
M. Moerstedt ↓ · T. Lemperle ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
C. Campbell ↓ · B. Toure ↑
Substitution 5
R. Philippe ↓ · W. Omari ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
D. Downs ↓ · A. Gronbaek ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Yellow Card
▮
90+2'
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

1899 Hoffenheim won 2–1 away at Hamburger SV. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Asllani (18'), R. Glatzel (34'), T. Lemperle (45').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.77 units (Brier 0.099).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.80 — 60% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.66 — 63% Cashed +0.66 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.53 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.53 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.25 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 2.00 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.40 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.25 — 82% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.48 — 59% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.49 — 58% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.39 — 60% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 — 94% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.14 — 80% Cashed +0.14 Cashed
Draw 4.00 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.96 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.90 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.77u −34% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
HAM – HOF @ 1.80
+7.4%
Edge
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