FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln 1:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.50 — +5.5% better than the market.

1.FC Köln enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their stronger attack against St. Pauli's sturdy defense sets up an intriguing tactical battle. St. Pauli's home momentum is limited, but their compact block could frustrate Köln's forward line. The match hints at a moderate pace with a balanced goal environment.

Köln's offensive pressure vs St. Pauli's defense
Home side's defensive resilience
Recent form favors the visitors

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.50 ✓ Cashed

AI 70% Implied 67% +0.50u

+50%

ROI on stake

Lineups

PAU 3-4-2-1 · KOL 4-4-2

PAU · 3-4-2-1 4-4-2 · KOL

27 Hountondji

Subs used · PAU

65'

Saliakas ↑ ·

Ritzka ↓

77'

Metcalfe ↑ ·

Hountondji ↓

87'

Kaars ↑ ·

Pereira Lage ↓

Subs used · KOL

46'

Maina ↑ ·

Thielmann ↓

51'

Bulter ↑ ·

Ache ↓

70'

Lund ↑ ·

Castro-Montes ↓

79'

Waldschmidt ↑ ·

Johannesson ↓

79'

Chavez ↑ ·

Sebulonsen ↓

Statistics

PAU 1 – 1 KOL

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.79

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.25

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 1 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

L. Maina ↓ · J. Thielmann ↑

Substitution 1

51'

⇄

M. Bulter ↓ · R. Ache ↑

Substitution 2

M. Saliakas ↓ · L. Ritzka ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

K. Mets

Assist · H. Wahl · 1–0

⚽

69'

70'

⇄

K. Lund ↓ · A. Castro-Montes ↑

Substitution 3

Andreas Hountondji

Yellow Card

▮

71'

Tomoya Ando

Yellow Card

▮

76'

C. Metcalfe ↓ · A. Hountondji ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

77'

79'

⇄

L. Waldschmidt ↓ · I. Johannesson ↑

Substitution 4

79'

⇄

F. Chavez ↓ · S. Sebulonsen ↑

Substitution 5

86'

⚽

L. Waldschmidt (P)

Penalty · 1–1

Mathias Pereira Lage

Yellow Card

▮

87'

▮

Said El Mala

Yellow Card

M. Kaars ↓ · M. Pereira Lage ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

Danel Sinani

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.79 to 1.25. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Mets (69'), L. Waldschmidt (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.13 units (Brier 0.150).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.81	—	58%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.17	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	46%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Home Win	2.80	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.96	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.98	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.15	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.50	—	70%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.51	—	58%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.30	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	—	78%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.39	—	28%	Cashed	+2.39	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.38	—	68%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.10	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.13u	−18% ROI

FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled