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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › RB Leipzig — Borussia Mönchengladbach

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 13:30
1:0
Full-time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Borussia Mönchengladbach
D D W L W Away · last 5
Referee Sascha Stegemann, Germany
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 58% · book 1.76 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 36% · book 2.80 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 41% · book 2.45 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
2.25 – 1.79
Δ +0.46
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.55 — +5.6% better than the market.

RB Leipzig enter this clash with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, having secured four wins in their last five. Their potent attack faces a less robust Gladbach defense, suggesting Leipzig’s pressing and creativity could unlock chances. Gladbach’s recent form shows resilience but limited scoring, hinting at a tactical battle where Leipzig’s home edge and sharper offensive threat may prevail.

  • Leipzig’s superior attacking firepower
  • Home advantage boosting confidence
  • Gladbach’s compact defense tested

Expect a moderately paced game with chances favoring the hosts, who look set to control proceedings and press for goals while managing Gladbach’s counter attempts.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.55 ✓ Cashed
AI 68% Implied 65% +0.55u
+55%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEI 4-3-3 · MOE 4-3-3
LEI · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · MOE 26 Vandevoordt 17 Baku 4 Orbán 5 Bitshiabu 22 Raum 14 Baumgartner 13 Seiwald 24 Schlager 49 Diomande ⚽ 40 Rômulo 7 Nusa 33 Nicolas 29 Scally 30 Elvedi 4 Diks 26 Ullrich 27 Reitz 16 Sander 6 Engelhardt 9 Honorat 15 Tabaković 17 Castrop
Subs used · LEI
66' Bakayoko ↑ · Cardoso ↓
66' Ouedraogo ↑ · Nusa ↓
78' Gruda ↑ · Seiwald ↓
78' Henrichs ↑ · Baku ↓
90+2' Finkgrafe ↑ · Diomande ↓
Subs used · MOE
33' Bolin ↑ · Ullrich ↓
62' C. Chiarodia ↑ · Diks ↓
85' Stoger ↑ · Castrop ↓
85' Machino ↑ · Engelhardt ↓
85' Mohya ↑ · Honorat ↓

Statistics

LEI 1 – 0 MOE
52%
Possession (%)
48%
2.25
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.79
24
Total Shots
15
11
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
7
18
Shots Inside Box
11
11
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
6
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
77%
4
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
11

Match events

16 · 1 – 0
Ridle Baku
Yellow Card
▮
33'
33'
⇄
H. Bolin ↓ · L. Ullrich ↑
Substitution 1
35'
▮
Joseph Scally
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Nicolas Seiwald
Yellow Card
▮
47'
62'
⇄
F. C. Chiarodia ↓ · K. Diks ↑
Substitution 2
J. Bakayoko ↓ · Romulo Cardoso ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
A. Ouedraogo ↓ · A. Nusa ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
Xaver Schlager
Yellow Card
▮
78'
B. Gruda ↓ · N. Seiwald ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
78'
B. Henrichs ↓ · R. Baku ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
Y. Diomande
Assist · C. Baumgartner · 1–0
⚽
80'
Brajan Gruda
Yellow Card
▮
82'
85'
⇄
K. Stoger ↓ · J. Castrop ↑
Substitution 3
85'
⇄
S. Machino ↓ · Y. Engelhardt ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
W. Mohya ↓ · F. Honorat ↑
Substitution 5
M. Finkgrafe ↓ · Y. Diomande ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+2'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

RB Leipzig beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 15, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 11 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Y. Diomande (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.23 units (Brier 0.215).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.76 — 58% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.80 — 36% Cashed +1.80 Cashed
BTTS No 2.45 — 41% Cashed +1.45 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.23 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.62 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.55 — 68% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.17 — 88% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.50 — 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.57 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.22 — 68% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Under 1.5 6.25 — 16% Cashed +5.25 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 — 96% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 5.00 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.16 — 84% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 21.00 — 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.99 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 4.61 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.23u +7% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
LEI – MOE @ 1.55
+5.6%
Edge
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