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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › VfB Stuttgart — Hamburger SV

VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV 4:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Home · last 5 L D D W D
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 15:30
4:0
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
Referee Sven Jablonski, Germany
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 62% · book 1.75 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 41% · book 2.75 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.30 ✓
Total goals
4
4 · 0
xG (open play)
3.64 – 0.61
Δ +3.03
Possession
65% – 35%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 6.00 — +14.6% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 6.00 ✗ Lost
AI 19% Implied 17% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

STU 4-2-3-1 · HAM 3-4-1-2
STU · 4-2-3-1 3-4-1-2 · HAM 33 Nübel 22 Assignon 3 Hendriks 24 Chabot 7 Mittelstädt ⚽ 30 Andrés 6 Stiller ⚽ 18 Leweling 26 Undav 10 Führich ⚽ 9 Demirović 1 Fernandes 17 Omari 25 Torunarigha 8 Elfadli 2 Mikelbrencis 23 Grønbæk 21 Remberg 45 Baldé 20 Vieira 11 Königsdörffer 14 Philippe
Subs used · STU
70' Nartey ↑ · Andres ↓
70' Tomas ↑ · Demirovic ↓
70' El Khannouss ↑ · Fuhrich ↓
88' Vagnoman ↑ · Assignon ↓
88' Arevalo ↑ · Undav ↓
Subs used · HAM
60' Stange ↑ · Philippe ↓
60' Glatzel ↑ · Gronbaek ↓
72' Gocholeishvili ↑ · Balde ↓
72' Capaldo ↑ · Elfadli ↓

Statistics

STU 4 – 0 HAM
65%
Possession (%)
35%
3.64
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.61
23
Total Shots
9
11
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
4
16
Shots Inside Box
4
8
Corner Kicks
2
5
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
14
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
75%
2
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

16 · 4 – 0
A. Stiller
Assist · J. Leweling · 1–0
⚽
21'
Chema Andrés
Yellow Card
▮
24'
C. Fuhrich
Assist · E. Demirovic · 2–0
⚽
32'
Half-time · 2 – 0
M. Mittelstadt
Assist · C. Fuhrich · 3–0
⚽
56'
60'
⇄
O. Stange ↓ · R. Philippe ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
R. Glatzel ↓ · A. Gronbaek ↑
Substitution 2
N. Nartey ↓ · C. Andres ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
70'
T. Tomas ↓ · E. Demirovic ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
70'
B. El Khannouss ↓ · C. Fuhrich ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
70'
72'
⇄
G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · F. Balde ↑
Substitution 3
72'
⇄
N. Capaldo ↓ · D. Elfadli ↑
Substitution 4
Deniz Undav
Yellow Card
▮
80'
80'
▮
Nicolás Capaldo
Yellow Card
B. El Khannouss
Assist · T. Tomas · 4–0
⚽
86'
J. Vagnoman ↓ · L. Assignon ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
Jeremy Arevalo ↓ · D. Undav ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

VfB Stuttgart beat Hamburger SV 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.64 to 0.61. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 9, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Stiller (21'), C. Fuhrich (32'), M. Mittelstadt (56'), B. El Khannouss (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.99 units (Brier 0.125).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.75 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.75 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.30 — 45% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.67 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.25 — 38% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
Home Win 1.48 — 70% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Under 1.5 6.00 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.13 — 90% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.50 — 59% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.85 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.16 — 70% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Under 0.5 22.00 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 5.08 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 — 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.16 — 81% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Away Win 7.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.25 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.99u −29% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
STU – HAM @ 6.00
+14.6%
Edge
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