Model verdict
AI picks Under 1.5 at 6.00 — +14.6% better than the market.
AI picks Under 1.5 at 6.00 — +14.6% better than the market.
VfB Stuttgart beat Hamburger SV 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.64 to 0.61. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 9, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: A. Stiller (21'), C. Fuhrich (32'), M. Mittelstadt (56'), B. El Khannouss (86').
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.99 units (Brier 0.125).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 1.75 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.75 | — | 41% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.30 | — | 45% | Cashed | +1.30 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.67 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 3.5 | 2.25 | — | 38% | Cashed | +1.25 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.48 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.48 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 6.00 | — | 19% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.13 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.13 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.50 | — | 59% | Cashed | +0.50 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.85 | — | 30% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.16 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.16 | Cashed |
| Under 0.5 | 22.00 | — | 5% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 5.08 | — | 19% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 | — | 95% | Cashed | +0.03 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.16 | — | 81% | Cashed | +0.16 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 7.00 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 5.25 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | −4.99u | −29% ROI |