Match VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV April 12, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.75 — +8.9% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.75 ✗ Lost

AI 62% Implied 57% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

STU 4-2-3-1 · HAM 3-4-1-2

STU · 4-2-3-1 3-4-1-2 · HAM

9 Demirović

Subs used · STU

70'

Nartey ↑ ·

Andres ↓

70'

Tomas ↑ ·

Demirovic ↓

70'

El Khannouss ↑ ·

Fuhrich ↓

88'

Vagnoman ↑ ·

Assignon ↓

88'

Arevalo ↑ ·

Undav ↓

Subs used · HAM

60'

Stange ↑ ·

Philippe ↓

60'

Glatzel ↑ ·

Gronbaek ↓

72'

Gocholeishvili ↑ ·

Balde ↓

72'

Capaldo ↑ ·

Elfadli ↓

📊 Statistics

STU 4 – 0 HAM

65%

Possession (%)

35%

3.64

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.61

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

75%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 4 – 0

A. Stiller

Assist · J. Leweling · 1–0

⚽

21'

Chema Andrés

Yellow Card

▮

24'

C. Fuhrich

Assist · E. Demirovic · 2–0

⚽

32'

Half-time · 2 – 0

M. Mittelstadt

Assist · C. Fuhrich · 3–0

⚽

56'

60'

⇄

O. Stange ↓ · R. Philippe ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

R. Glatzel ↓ · A. Gronbaek ↑

Substitution 2

N. Nartey ↓ · C. Andres ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

T. Tomas ↓ · E. Demirovic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

B. El Khannouss ↓ · C. Fuhrich ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

72'

⇄

G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · F. Balde ↑

Substitution 3

72'

⇄

N. Capaldo ↓ · D. Elfadli ↑

Substitution 4

Deniz Undav

Yellow Card

▮

80'

▮

Nicolás Capaldo

Yellow Card

B. El Khannouss

Assist · T. Tomas · 4–0

⚽

86'

J. Vagnoman ↓ · L. Assignon ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

Jeremy Arevalo ↓ · D. Undav ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

VfB Stuttgart beat Hamburger SV 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.64 to 0.61. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 9, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Stiller (21'), C. Fuhrich (32'), M. Mittelstadt (56'), B. El Khannouss (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.99 units (Brier 0.125).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.75	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.75	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.30	—	45%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.25	—	38%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
Home Win	1.48	—	70%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.00	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.13	—	90%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.50	—	59%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.85	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.16	—	70%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Under 0.5	22.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.08	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.16	—	81%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Away Win	7.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.25	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.99u	−29% ROI

Match VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV April 12, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.75 — +8.9% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled