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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › FSV Mainz 05 — SC Freiburg

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Home · last 5 D L W L W
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 17:30
0:1
Full-time
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
W L D L W Away · last 5
MEWA Arena · Mainz Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 64% · book 1.68 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 52% · book 1.93 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 44% · book 2.30 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.63 – 0.57
Δ +0.06
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.68 — +8.3% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.68 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 60% +0.68u
+68%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MAI 3-1-4-2 · FRE 4-2-3-1
MAI · 3-1-4-2 4-2-3-1 · FRE 33 Batz 21 Costa 4 Posch 31 Kohr 6 Sano 22 Veratschnig 24 Kawasaki 8 Nebel 2 Mwene 20 Tietz 23 Becker 1 Atubolu 17 Kübler 28 Ginter 43 Ogbus 30 Günter 8 Eggestein 44 Manzambi 22 Irié 9 Höler ⚽ 7 Scherhant 31 Matanović
Subs used · MAI
62' Widmer ↑ · Veratschnig ↓
62' Amiri ↑ · Kawasaki ↓
74' Caci ↑ · Mwene ↓
74' Sieb ↑ · Nebel ↓
83' Weiper ↑ · da Costa ↓
Subs used · FRE
46' Lienhart ↑ · Ogbus ↓
64' Beste ↑ · Irie ↓
64' Treu ↑ · Kubler ↓
74' Grifo ↑ · Scherhant ↓
83' Makengo ↑ · Ginter ↓

Statistics

MAI 0 – 1 FRE
51%
Possession (%)
49%
0.63
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.57
10
Total Shots
8
3
Shots on Target
3
6
Shots off Target
2
6
Shots Inside Box
6
6
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
13
75%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

15 · 0 – 1
33'
▮
Bruno Ogbus
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
⇄
P. Lienhart ↓ · B. Ogbus ↑
Substitution 1
47'
⚽
L. Holer
Assist · M. Ginter · 0–1
45+4'
▮
Maximilian Eggestein
Yellow Card
Nikolas Veratschnig
Yellow Card
▮
55'
S. Widmer ↓ · N. Veratschnig ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
62'
N. Amiri ↓ · S. Kawasaki ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
64'
⇄
J. Beste ↓ · C. Irie ↑
Substitution 2
64'
⇄
P. Treu ↓ · L. Kubler ↑
Substitution 3
73'
▮
Lucas Höler
Yellow Card
A. Caci ↓ · P. Mwene ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
A. Sieb ↓ · P. Nebel ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
74'
⇄
V. Grifo ↓ · D. Scherhant ↑
Substitution 4
N. Weiper ↓ · D. da Costa ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
83'
⇄
J. Makengo ↓ · M. Ginter ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

SC Freiburg won 1–0 away at FSV Mainz 05. At half-time it was 0–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Holer (47').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.71 units (Brier 0.248).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.68 — 64% Cashed +0.68 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.93 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.30 — 44% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.02 — 48% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.70 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.47 — 37% Cashed +1.47 Cashed
Home Win 2.36 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.62 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.65 — 37% Cashed +2.65 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.42 — 69% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.35 — 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.25 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.30 — 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 92% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.10 — 24% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Draw 3.35 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +1.71u +10% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
MAI – FRE @ 1.68
+8.3%
Edge
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