Match Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg April 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.08 — +8.9% better than the market.

Hamburger SV hosts FC Augsburg in a Bundesliga clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge. Augsburg's sharper attack meets Hamburg's robust defense, suggesting a tactical battle. Home momentum is visible with recent mixed results, while Augsburg's form hints at a late surge. The match may lean towards a compact, cautious tempo given balanced xG and moderate goal expectations.

Hamburg's defensive solidity vs Augsburg's offensive threat
Close recent form but Augsburg's late wins add confidence
Balanced xG suggests a tight, tactical contest

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.08 ✓ Cashed

AI 52% Implied 48% +1.08u

+108%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAM 3-4-2-1 · AUG 3-4-2-1

HAM · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · AUG

9 Glatzel

Subs used · HAM

46'

Philippe ↑ ·

Otele ↓

67'

Gocholeishvili ↑ ·

Konigsdorffer ↓

67'

Gronbaek ↑ ·

Glatzel ↓

90+5'

Stange ↑

Subs used · AUG

80'

Ribeiro ↑ ·

Kade ↓

80'

Massengo ↑ ·

Fellhauer ↓

90'

Ogundu ↑ ·

Claude-Maurice ↓

📊 Statistics

HAM 1 – 1 AUG

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.59

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.29

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 1

22'

⚽

Arthur Chaves

0–1

Philip Otele

Yellow Card

▮

41'

Half-time · 0 – 1

R. Philippe ↓ · P. Otele ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

Jordan Torunarigha

Yellow Card

▮

55'

59'

▮

Fabian Rieder

Yellow Card

R. Konigsdorffer

Assist · R. Glatzel · 1–1

⚽

60'

Miro Muheim

Red Card

▮

64'

G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

A. Gronbaek ↓ · R. Glatzel ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

80'

⇄

R. Ribeiro ↓ · A. Kade ↑

Substitution 1

80'

⇄

H. Massengo ↓ · R. Fellhauer ↑

Substitution 2

81'

▮

Cedric Zesiger

Yellow Card

87'

▮

Keven Schlotterbeck

Yellow Card

90'

⇄

U. Ogundu ↓ · A. Claude-Maurice ↑

Substitution 3

O. Stange ↓ ·

Substitution 4

⇄

90+5'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.29 to 1.59. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Arthur Chaves (22'), R. Konigsdorffer (60'). Miro Muheim was sent off in the 64' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.85 units (Brier 0.153).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.08	—	52%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
BTTS No	2.25	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.67	—	63%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.87	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.34	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	52%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.35	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.67	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.30	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	73%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	63%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.05	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	73%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	25%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.85u	−17% ROI