Match Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig April 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.73 — +8.2% better than the market.

RB Leipzig enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a pressing style that challenges Werder Bremen's defensive setup. Despite Bremen's slight home momentum, Leipzig's superior offensive firepower and compact block could exploit Bremen's defensive vulnerabilities. The recent form suggests a balanced contest, but Leipzig's tactical discipline and sharper attack versus Bremen's defense hint at a likely away advantage.

Leipzig's attacking threat versus Bremen's defense
Bremen's home edge is mild but present
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.73 ✓ Cashed

AI 63% Implied 58% +0.73u

+73%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

WER 4-2-3-1 · LEI 4-3-3

WER · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · LEI

11 Njinmah

Subs used · WER

49'

Covic ↑ ·

Pieper ↓

61'

Sugawara ↑ ·

Grull ↓

61'

Mbangula ↑ ·

Agu ↓

76'

Milosevic ↑ ·

Bittencourt ↓

76'

Musah ↑ ·

Njinmah ↓

Subs used · LEI

56'

Banzuzi ↑ ·

Lukeba ↓

78'

Gomis ↑ ·

Nusa ↓

78'

Harder ↑ ·

Cardoso ↓

86'

Henrichs ↑ ·

Diomande ↓

86'

Ouedraogo ↑ ·

Baumgartner ↓

📊 Statistics

WER 1 – 2 LEI

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.34

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.49

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 2

15'

⚽

A. Nusa

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

P. Covic ↓ · A. Pieper ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

49'

52'

⚽

Romulo Cardoso

0–2

56'

⇄

E. Banzuzi ↓ · C. Lukeba ↑

Substitution 1

Y. Sugawara ↓ · M. Grull ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

S. Mbangula ↓ · F. Agu ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

Cameron Puertas

Yellow Card

▮

73'

J. Milosevic ↓ · L. Bittencourt ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

S. Musah ↓ · J. Njinmah ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

76'

78'

⇄

T. Gomis ↓ · A. Nusa ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

C. Harder ↓ · Romulo Cardoso ↑

Substitution 3

86'

⇄

B. Henrichs ↓ · Y. Diomande ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⇄

A. Ouedraogo ↓ · C. Baumgartner ↑

Substitution 5

S. Musah

Assist · J. Milosevic · 1–2

⚽

90'

90+2'

▮

Tidiam Gomis

Yellow Card

Marco Friedl

Yellow Card

▮

90+8'

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

RB Leipzig won 2–1 away at Werder Bremen. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 7, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Nusa (15'), Romulo Cardoso (52'), S. Musah (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.18 units (Brier 0.103).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.73	—	63%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Away Win	2.04	—	57%	Cashed	+1.04	Cashed
BTTS No	2.80	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.63	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.33	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.87	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.69	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.75	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.34	—	80%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.52	—	59%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.47	—	61%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.53	—	57%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 0.5	22.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.10	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.16	—	81%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Home Win	3.60	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.18u	−30% ROI