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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Borussia Dortmund — Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 L W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 21 Mar · 17:30
3:2
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
Referee Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 62% · book 1.67 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 40% · book 2.56 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 47% · book 2.10 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
6.20 – 1.47
Δ +4.73
Possession
68% – 32%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 5.50 — +4.9% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund enter this clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a strong attacking profile against Hamburger SV's less robust defense. Dortmund's recent form shows signs of inconsistency, but their offensive firepower and pressing edge should challenge HSV's compact block. The pace is likely moderate, with a balanced goal environment hinted by market odds.

  • Home attacking threat vs away defensive resilience
  • Moderate tempo expected, favoring Dortmund's pressing style
  • Recent form suggests Dortmund can capitalize on home advantage

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 5.50 ✗ Lost
AI 19% Implied 18% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

DOR 3-5-2 · HAM 3-4-3
DOR · 3-5-2 3-4-3 · HAM 1 Kobel 49 Reggiani 3 Anton 4 Schlotterbeck 26 Ryerson 20 Sabitzer 7 Bellingham 8 Nmecha 24 Svensson 14 Beier 27 Adeyemi 1 Fernandes 17 Omari 44 Vušković 25 Torunarigha 2 Mikelbrencis 6 Lokonga ⚽ 21 Remberg 28 Muheim 20 Vieira 11 Königsdörffer 27 Otele ⚽
Subs used · DOR
46' Guirassy ↑ · Adeyemi ↓
46' Bensebaini ↑ · Reggiani ↓
58' Silva ↑ · Svensson ↓
58' Chukwuemeka ↑ · Sabitzer ↓
90+6' Brandt ↑ · Nmecha ↓
Subs used · HAM
67' Downs ↑ · Vieira ↓
68' Balde ↑ · Otele ↓
79' Stange ↑ · Konigsdorffer ↓
90+1' Dompe ↑ · Mikelbrencis ↓
90+1' Philippe ↑ · Omari ↓

Statistics

DOR 3 – 2 HAM
68%
Possession (%)
32%
6.20
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.47
24
Total Shots
4
8
Shots on Target
4
11
Shots off Target
0
20
Shots Inside Box
3
11
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
8
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
71%
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

20 · 3 – 2
19'
⚽
P. Otele
Assist · W. Mikelbrencis · 0–1
38'
⚽
A. S. Lokonga
Assist · F. Vieira · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
S. Guirassy ↓ · K. Adeyemi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
R. Bensebaini ↓ · L. Reggiani ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
Karim Adeyemi
Yellow Card
▮
45+4'
45+4'
▮
Nicolai Remberg
Yellow Card
F. Silva ↓ · D. Svensson ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
58'
C. Chukwuemeka ↓ · M. Sabitzer ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
58'
67'
⇄
D. Downs ↓ · F. Vieira ↑
Substitution 1
68'
▮
Philip Otele
Yellow Card
68'
⇄
F. Balde ↓ · P. Otele ↑
Substitution 2
72'
▮
William Mikelbrencis
Yellow Card
R. Bensebaini (P)
Penalty · 1–2
⚽
73'
S. Guirassy
2–2
⚽
78'
79'
⇄
O. Stange ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑
Substitution 3
R. Bensebaini (P)
Penalty · 3–2
⚽
84'
90+1'
⇄
J. Dompe ↓ · W. Mikelbrencis ↑
Substitution 4
90+1'
⇄
R. Philippe ↓ · W. Omari ↑
Substitution 5
Julian Ryerson
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
J. Brandt ↓ · F. Nmecha ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+6'
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat Hamburger SV 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 6.20 to 1.47. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 4, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Otele (19'), A. S. Lokonga (38'), R. Bensebaini (73'), S. Guirassy (78'), R. Bensebaini (84').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.34 units (Brier 0.114).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.67 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.56 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.10 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.78 — 53% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.40 — 38% Cashed +1.40 Cashed
Home Win 1.44 — 72% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.12 — 91% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.55 — 60% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.08 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.16 — 72% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Under 1.5 5.50 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 19.50 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 5.20 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 — 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.18 — 81% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Away Win 8.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.25 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.34u −31% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
DOR – HAM @ 5.50
+4.9%
Edge
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