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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Borussia Dortmund — Hamburger SV

Predictions by Market: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 L W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 21 Mar · 17:30
3:2
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
Referee Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · DOR
72%
Best 1.39
Draw
19%
Best 5.00
Away Win · HAM
9%
Best 7.50
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 5.50
Fair odds
5.24
book 5.50 · +4.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 19% · EV +4.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (81%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 19.1%
Odds 5.20
Show model details
Implied probability 19.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 9.2%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 40.5%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 37.7%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 59.5%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 19.1%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5.1%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 80.9%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 47.3%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.7%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 9.2%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90.9%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 28.3%
Odds 3.08
Show model details
Implied probability 32.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
DOR – HAM @ 5.50
+4.9%
Edge
Forecast →