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Home Germany Germany Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund — Hamburger SV

Predictions Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV March 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 L W L W W
Kick-off
Sat 21 Mar · 17:30
3:2
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
Referee Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany
Home Win · DOR
72%
Best 1.39
Draw
19%
Best 5.00
Away Win · HAM
9%
Best 7.50
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 5.50
Fair odds
5.24
book 5.50 · +4.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 19% · EV +4.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (81%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 19.1%
Odds 5.20
Show model details
Implied probability 19.2%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 9.2%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 40.5%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 37.7%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 59.5%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.1%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.1%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.9%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.9%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 47.3%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.7%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 9.2%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90.9%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 28.3%
Odds 3.08
Show model details
Implied probability 32.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
DOR – HAM @ 5.50
+4.9%
Edge
Forecast →