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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Bayer Leverkusen — Bayern München

Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
Home · last 5 L W W L D
Kick-off
Sat 14 Mar · 14:30
1:1
Full-time
Bayern München
Bayern München
W W D W W Away · last 5
BayArena · Bayer Leverkusen Referee Christian Dingert, Germany
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 59% · book 2.01 ✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 66% · book 1.64 ✗
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 34% · book 2.43 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
2.61 – 1.29
Δ +1.32
Possession
45% – 55%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.39 — +8.2% better than the market.

Bundesliga Clash at BayArena

Bayern München enters this fixture with a clear quality edge and a strong winning streak, contrasting Bayer Leverkusen's mixed recent form. Despite Leverkusen's home advantage and a compact defensive setup, Bayern's potent attack is likely to test them relentlessly. The match hints at a lively pace with goal-scoring opportunities on both ends, supported by Bayern's pressing edge and Leverkusen's set-piece threat.

  • Bayern's offensive firepower vs Leverkusen's defense
  • Leverkusen's home momentum vs Bayern's form dominance
  • Potential for multiple goals given attacking styles

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.39 ✗ Lost
AI 78% Implied 72% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BAY 3-4-2-1 · BAY 4-2-3-1
BAY · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · BAY 28 Blaswich 4 Quansah 8 Andrich 12 Tapsoba 42 Culbreath 6 Fernández 24 García ⚽ 19 Poku 11 Terrier 10 Tillman 14 Schick 26 Ulreich 44 Stanišić 2 Upamecano 4 Tah 27 Laimer 6 Kimmich 45 Pavlović 17 Olise 42 Karl 14 Díaz ⚽ 11 Jackson
Subs used · BAY
46' Maza ↑ · Terrier ↓
61' Kofane ↑ · Schick ↓
77' Palacios ↑ · Garcia ↓
77' Hofmann ↑ · Culbreath ↓
87' Tella ↑ · Poku ↓
Subs used · BAY
61' Goretzka ↑ · Pavlovic ↓
61' Kane ↑ · Karl ↓
88' Min-Jae ↑ · Laimer ↓
89' Bischof ↑ · Olise ↓

Statistics

BAY 1 – 1 BAY
45%
Possession (%)
55%
2.61
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.29
20
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
5
11
Shots off Target
3
14
Shots Inside Box
10
4
Corner Kicks
1
2
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
13
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
89%
3
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

20 · 1 – 1
A. Garcia
Assist · P. Schick · 1–0
⚽
6'
32'
▮
Jonathan Tah
Yellow Card
42'
▮
Nicolas Jackson
Red Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
I. Maza ↓ · M. Terrier ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
Ezequiel Fernández
Yellow Card
▮
56'
C. Kofane ↓ · P. Schick ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
61'
⇄
L. Goretzka ↓ · A. Pavlovic ↑
Substitution 1
61'
⇄
H. Kane ↓ · L. Karl ↑
Substitution 2
69'
⚽
L. Diaz
Assist · M. Olise · 1–1
Robert Andrich
Yellow Card
▮
74'
74'
▮
Luis Díaz
Yellow Card
E. Palacios ↓ · A. Garcia ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
J. Hofmann ↓ · M. Culbreath ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
77'
84'
▮
Luis Díaz
Yellow Card
84'
▮
Luis Díaz
Red Card
N. Tella ↓ · E. Poku ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
88'
⇄
Kim Min-Jae ↓ · K. Laimer ↑
Substitution 3
89'
⇄
T. Bischof ↓ · M. Olise ↑
Substitution 4
Edmond Tapsoba
Yellow Card
▮
90+5'
90+7'
▮
Sven Ulreich
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern München drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.61 to 1.29. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 11, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Garcia (6'), L. Diaz (69'). Nicolas Jackson was sent off in the 42' minute. Luis Díaz was sent off in the 84' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.21 units (Brier 0.241).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 2.01 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 1.64 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 2.43 — 34% Cashed +1.43 Cashed
BTTS No 2.80 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.93 — 41% Cashed +0.93 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.47 — 71% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.39 — 78% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.22 — 86% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.28 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.20 — 22% Cashed +2.20 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.12 — 90% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 — 98% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 4.82 — 20% Cashed +3.82 Cashed
Home Win 5.20 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 27.00 — 2% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 4.15 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +0.21u +1% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
BAY – BAY @ 1.39
+8.2%
Edge
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