This matchup features Bournemouth with a clear home advantage and a stronger recent run compared to Fulham, who have been inconsistent on the road. Bournemouth’s defensive solidity at home and their ability to control games suggest they will likely restrict Fulham’s attacking threat. The game is expected to have moderate scoring, with a slight lean towards Bournemouth securing the win. The market shows value in backing Bournemouth to win and the double chance on Bournemouth or draw, reflecting their home edge and form. Goals are likely but not abundant, making the under 2.5 goals market attractive. The BTTS market is balanced but leans slightly towards both teams scoring given the attacking profiles.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
BOU 4-2-3-1 · FUL 3-4-2-1📊 Statistics
BOU 3 – 1 FUL53%
Possession (%)
47%
1.12
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.89
11
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Target
4
2
Shots off Target
4
6
Shots Inside Box
5
4
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
10
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
0
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
⏱ Match events
15 · 3 – 114'
⇄
T. Cairney ↓ · S. Lukic ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
J. Kluivert ↓ · M. Tavernier ↑
Substitution 1
61'
A. Jimenez ↓ · J. Hill ↑
Substitution 2
61'
67'
⇄
S. Chukwueze ↓ · H. Wilson ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
Kevin ↓ · J. King ↑
Substitution 3
70'
⚽
R. Sessegnon
Assist · S. Chukwueze · 0–1
76'
▮
Issa Diop
Yellow Card
R. Christie ↓ · T. Adams ↑
Substitution 3
78'
B. Doak ↓ · M. Senesi ↑
Substitution 4
78'
A. Semenyo
Assist · A. Truffert · 1–1
78'
J. Kluivert
Assist · A. Semenyo · 2–1
84'
V. Milosavljevic ↓ · D. Brooks ↑
Substitution 5
85'
86'
⇄
A. Traore ↓ · A. Iwobi ↑
Substitution 4
86'
⇄
E. Smith Rowe ↓ · I. Diop ↑
Substitution 5
A. Semenyo
Assist · B. Doak · 3–1
90'
Full-time · 3 – 1
Match recap
Bournemouth beat Fulham 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.
In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.12 expected goals.
On the scoresheet: R. Sessegnon (70'), A. Semenyo (78'), J. Kluivert (84'), A. Semenyo (90').
Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 4 landed and 1 missed, for a net +1.47 units (Brier 0.190).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
5 · 4 W · 1 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 1.97 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.97 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.28 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.28 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 1.99 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.80 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.80 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.42 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| Total · 5 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 4 W · 1 L | +1.47u | +29% ROI |