Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 0:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.68 — +8.9% better than the market.

Werder Bremen hosts FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga clash where Mainz holds a slight quality edge and better recent form. Bremen’s home advantage is modest but their defensive solidity could keep the game tight. Mainz’s sharper attack against Bremen’s sturdy defense suggests a tactical battle with chances on both ends.

Modest home edge for Bremen with a compact defensive block
Mainz’s attacking threat tests Bremen’s resilience
Recent form favors Mainz, hinting at momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.68 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 60% +0.68u

+68%

ROI on stake

Lineups

WER 4-5-1 · MAI 3-5-2

WER · 4-5-1 3-5-2 · MAI

9 Topp

Subs used · WER

46'

Njinmah ↑ ·

Topp ↓

55'

Schmetgens ↑ ·

Malatini ↓

69'

Covic ↑ ·

Bittencourt ↓

69'

Schmidt ↑ ·

Sugawara ↓

85'

Musah ↑ ·

Grull ↓

Subs used · MAI

72'

Veratschnig ↑ ·

Mwene ↓

72'

Weiper ↑ ·

Tietz ↓

81'

Potulski ↑ ·

Widmer ↓

87'

Maloney ↑ ·

Becker ↓

87'

Kawasaki ↑ ·

Jae-Sung ↓

Statistics

WER 0 – 2 MAI

66%

Possession (%)

34%

0.87

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

70%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 0 – 2

⚽

P. Nebel

Assist · P. Mwene · 0–1

Leonardo Bittencourt

Yellow Card

▮

38'

Half-time · 0 – 1

J. Njinmah ↓ · K. Topp ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

52'

⚽

Lee Jae-Sung

Assist · S. Becker · 0–2

M. Schmetgens ↓ · J. Malatini ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

55'

62'

▮

Jae-sung Lee

Yellow Card

Jens Stage

Yellow Card

▮

63'

P. Covic ↓ · L. Bittencourt ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

I. Schmidt ↓ · Y. Sugawara ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

69'

72'

⇄

N. Veratschnig ↓ · P. Mwene ↑

Substitution 1

72'

⇄

N. Weiper ↓ · P. Tietz ↑

Substitution 2

81'

⇄

K. Potulski ↓ · S. Widmer ↑

Substitution 3

S. Musah ↓ · M. Grull ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

87'

⇄

L. Maloney ↓ · S. Becker ↑

Substitution 4

87'

⇄

S. Kawasaki ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 won 2–0 away at Werder Bremen. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Nebel (6'), Lee Jae-Sung (52').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.59 units (Brier 0.173).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.68	—	65%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.14	—	50%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
BTTS No	2.33	—	45%	Cashed	+1.33	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.83	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.30	—	39%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.63	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.32	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.65	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.21	—	39%	Cashed	+2.21	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.40	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	—	71%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.90	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.26	—	75%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Draw	3.68	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.59u	−9% ROI

Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 0:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled