Match FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen February 22, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 8.50 — +12.8% better than the market.

FC St. Pauli hosts Werder Bremen in a tight Bundesliga clash where defensive solidity could dominate. Both sides show similar quality, but St. Pauli's home edge and slightly better recent form hint at a compact, low-scoring game. Expect a cautious tempo with few clear chances as both teams struggle to convert offensive opportunities.

Home defensive resilience vs away attacking pressure
Recent form favors St. Pauli's steadier momentum
Odds suggest a match leaning towards under 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 8.50 ✗ Lost

AI 13% Implied 12% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAU 3-4-2-1 · WER 3-4-2-1

PAU · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · WER

19 Kaars

Subs used · PAU

53'

Pereira Lage ↑ ·

Kaars ↓

80'

Sands ↑ ·

Irvine ↓

87'

Rasmussen ↑ ·

Fujita ↓

Subs used · WER

60'

Bittencourt ↑ ·

Schmid ↓

60'

Milosevic ↑ ·

Grull ↓

79'

Topp ↑ ·

Puertas ↓

📊 Statistics

PAU 2 – 1 WER

42%

Possession (%)

58%

0.21

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.61

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 2 – 1

▮

Isaac Schmidt

Yellow Card

Martijn Kaars

Yellow Card

▮

29'

Half-time · 0 – 0

M. Pereira Lage ↓ · M. Kaars ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

53'

54'

▮

Senne Lynen

Yellow Card

H. Wahl

Assist · D. Sinani · 1–0

⚽

55'

60'

⇄

L. Bittencourt ↓ · R. Schmid ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

J. Milosevic ↓ · M. Grull ↑

Substitution 2

62'

⚽

J. Milosevic

1–1

J. Fujita

Assist · M. Saliakas · 2–1

⚽

70'

75'

▮

Marco Friedl

Yellow Card

Manolis Saliakas

Yellow Card

▮

76'

▮

Leonardo Bittencourt

Yellow Card

76'

▮

Jovan Milošević

Yellow Card

79'

⇄

K. Topp ↓ · C. Puertas ↑

Substitution 3

J. Sands ↓ · J. Irvine ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

M. Rasmussen ↓ · J. Fujita ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

88'

▮

Niklas Stark

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

FC St. Pauli beat Werder Bremen 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.61 to 0.21. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 4, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 1. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.21 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: H. Wahl (55'), J. Milosevic (62'), J. Fujita (70').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.52 units (Brier 0.221).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.67	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.87	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.40	—	35%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.98	—	42%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.97	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.97	—	34%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.00	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.84	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.48	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.48	—	61%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Home Win	2.87	—	34%	Cashed	+1.87	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.45	—	62%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.23	—	83%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	87%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.25	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.50	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.52u	−15% ROI

Match FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen February 22, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 0.5 at 8.50 — +12.8% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled