Match Hamburger SV vs Bayern München January 31, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.89 — +10.6% better than the market.

Bayern München arrives at Volksparkstadion with a clear quality edge and strong recent form, contrasting Hamburger SV's struggles. The visitors' potent attack is likely to challenge Hamburg's defense, which has shown vulnerabilities. Despite Hamburg's home momentum, Bayern's pressing and clinical finishing could dominate this encounter.

Bayern's offensive firepower meets Hamburg's leaky defense
Recent form favors Bayern's confidence and rhythm
Match pace expected to be high, favoring quick transitions

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 1.89 ✓ Cashed

AI 59% Implied 53% +0.89u

+89%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HAM 3-5-1-1 · BAY 4-2-3-1

HAM · 3-5-1-1 4-2-3-1 · BAY

11 Königsdörffer

Subs used · HAM

59'

Gocholeishvili ↑ ·

Jatta ↓

73'

Omari ↑ ·

Mikelbrencis ↓

73'

Philippe ↑ ·

Konigsdorffer ↓

85'

Pherai ↑ ·

S. Lokonga ↓

85'

Glatzel ↑ ·

Vieira ↓

Subs used · BAY

46'

Diaz ↑ ·

Karl ↓

65'

Tah ↑ ·

Min-Jae ↓

65'

Musiala ↑ ·

Gnabry ↓

📊 Statistics

HAM 2 – 2 BAY

28%

Possession (%)

72%

2.26

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.37

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

92%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 2 – 2

Nicolai Remberg

Yellow Card

▮

23'

F. Vieira (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

34'

42'

⚽

H. Kane

Assist · J. Kimmich · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

46'

⇄

L. Diaz ↓ · L. Karl ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⚽

L. Diaz

Assist · M. Olise · 1–2

L. Vuskovic

Assist · W. Mikelbrencis · 2–2

⚽

53'

Miro Muheim

Yellow Card

▮

55'

57'

▮

Min-jae Kim

Yellow Card

G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · B. Jatta ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

65'

⇄

J. Tah ↓ · Kim Min-Jae ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

J. Musiala ↓ · S. Gnabry ↑

Substitution 3

W. Omari ↓ · W. Mikelbrencis ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

R. Philippe ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

Albert Sambi Lokonga

Yellow Card

▮

75'

Giorgi Gocholeishvili

Yellow Card

▮

85'

I. Pherai ↓ · A. S. Lokonga ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

R. Glatzel ↓ · F. Vieira ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

87'

▮

Harry Kane

Yellow Card

Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

90+5'

▮

Michael Olise

Yellow Card

Nicolás Capaldo

Yellow Card

▮

90+10'

▮

Joshua Kimmich

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Hamburger SV and Bayern München drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 72% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 92% of their passes. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 10 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Vieira (34'), H. Kane (42'), L. Diaz (46'), L. Vuskovic (53').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.88 units (Brier 0.193).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	1.89	—	59%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	60%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
BTTS No	2.43	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	2.07	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.76	—	16%	Cashed	+5.76	Cashed
Away Win	1.31	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.08	—	93%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.11	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.34	—	77%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.10	—	91%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	—	98%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	4.02	—	23%	Cashed	+3.02	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.60	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	8.50	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	10.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	29.00	—	2%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	6.60	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.88u	+11% ROI

Match Hamburger SV vs Bayern München January 31, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.89 — +10.6% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled