VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.77 — +10.1% better than the market.

VfB Stuttgart enters this clash with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, having outperformed SC Freiburg in recent form and overall strength. Their offensive prowess faces a slightly less robust Freiburg defense, suggesting Stuttgart’s pressing and set-piece threat could be decisive. The home side’s compact block and ability to control tempo at home should limit Freiburg’s chances.

Stuttgart’s home advantage and sharper attack
Freiburg’s resilient but less potent defense
Recent form favors Stuttgart’s consistency

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.77 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 57% +0.77u

+77%

ROI on stake

Lineups

STU 4-2-3-1 · FRE 4-2-3-1

STU · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · FRE

26 Undav

Subs used · STU

59'

Mittelstadt ↑ ·

Hendriks ↓

59'

Fuhrich ↑ ·

Nartey ↓

77'

Andres ↑ ·

Karazor ↓

77'

Demirovic ↑ ·

El Khannouss ↓

90+3'

Jaquez ↑ ·

Undav ↓

Subs used · FRE

68'

Osterhage ↑ ·

Manzambi ↓

68'

Irie ↑ ·

Beste ↓

76'

Grifo ↑ ·

Scherhant ↓

76'

Holer ↑ ·

Suzuki ↓

78'

Ogbus ↑ ·

Treu ↓

Statistics

STU 1 – 0 FRE

70%

Possession (%)

30%

1.62

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.70

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

69%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 1 – 0

Half-time · 0 – 0

Atakan Karazor

Yellow Card

▮

52'

53'

▮

Jan-Niklas Beste

Yellow Card

M. Mittelstadt ↓ · R. Hendriks ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

C. Fuhrich ↓ · N. Nartey ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

68'

⇄

P. Osterhage ↓ · J. Manzambi ↑

Substitution 1

68'

⇄

C. Irie ↓ · J. Beste ↑

Substitution 2

76'

⇄

V. Grifo ↓ · D. Scherhant ↑

Substitution 3

76'

⇄

L. Holer ↓ · Y. Suzuki ↑

Substitution 4

C. Andres ↓ · A. Karazor ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

E. Demirovic ↓ · B. El Khannouss ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

78'

⇄

B. Ogbus ↓ · P. Treu ↑

Substitution 5

E. Demirovic

Assist · D. Undav · 1–0

⚽

89'

Ermedin Demirović

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

L. Jaquez ↓ · D. Undav ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

Maximilian Mittelstädt

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

VfB Stuttgart beat SC Freiburg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 70% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.62 to 0.70. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 11, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: E. Demirovic (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.52 units (Brier 0.208).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.77	—	62%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.70	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.62	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.34	—	41%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
BTTS No	2.32	—	41%	Cashed	+1.32	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.20	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.24	—	85%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.53	—	63%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.34	—	62%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.22	—	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	4.21	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.90	—	19%	Cashed	+3.90	Cashed
Under 0.5	16.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.80	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.47	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.52u	−3% ROI

VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled